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To: ldo79 who wrote (40641)	3/23/1999 8:54:00 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Tuesday March 23 8:06 AM ET Oil Dips But OPEC Deal Wins Trade Approval LONDON (Reuters) - World oil prices barely flinched from slightly lower levels Tuesday after OPEC agreed to cut oil supply to glutted markets. Oil traders said any downward correction was merely a market reaction to sharp gains over the past few weeks and they broadly welcomed the deal. The cartel, meeting in Vienna to ratify a pre-arranged deal, had delivered a believable deal and prices look set to rise later in the year as the cuts soak up surplus oil, they said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to trim about by seven percent or some 1.7 million barrels a day (bpd) from exports for one year. ''OPEC have got some credibility back. Now it's up to them to follow it through,'' said Bob Finch, head of trading at Vitol SA in London. Brent crude oil, the world benchmark grade, was down 16 cents at $13.72 a barrel at 12:42 p.m. GMT. Prices have gained $1.50 since Gulf oil producers first indicated cuts were likely and have jumped around 30 percent in the past month. Oil traders and analysts said they expected prices to stay roughly at current levels for a while but to climb later in the year as surplus oil begins to be mopped up. The producer group hopes to lift Brent to around $18 but analysts are tending to err on the side of caution. Last month a Reuters poll of oil industry experts forecast an average of just $12.61 for Brent this year. Many are now revising their forecasts upwards and predicting levels nearer $15 or $16 by the end of the year. So far this year Brent has averaged $11.22, nearly 16 percent less than the $13.34 average seen last year, the lowest average price for 22 years. Oil analysts believe the deal to cut exports will lift prices even if OPEC doesn't stick rigidly to the agreement. ''About 70 to 75 percent compliance is a reasonable amount ... We won't see a big draw in the second quarter but it should prevent a large build-up,'' said Jonathon Wright of Merril Lynch in London. World oil demand usually takes a seasonal downturn in the second quarter as demand for winter heating oil subsides. In recent years that downturn coincided with surging oil exports which flooded into storage tanks. ''As we go into the third and fourth quarter inventories should be drawn. We expect $16 for Brent by the end of the year'' said Wright. ''If they stick near enough to the deal then it should get rid of most of the surplus by the end of the year,'' said Mike Barry of Energy Market Consultants in London. ''We expect to see $15 by the end of the year and we haven't seen enough evidence yet to change our view.'' OPEC appears convinced that it has overcome the stumbling blocks that ruined its efforts last year at market intervention. It insists there will be compliance by all members. The deal signed Tuesday was negotiated by five key producers in The Hague on March 12, with the consent of fellow exporters. The new limits, OPEC's third attempt at draining the glut, mean it will have removed more than four million barrels a day from the world oil market in a year, a 16 percent cut. OPEC action last year had proved too little too late to tackle a towering petroleum stockpile exacerbated by failing Asian demand, sending oil prices crashing and costing OPEC $50 billion in lost export revenues. Non-OPEC Mexico, Norway and Oman have promised their cooperation with OPEC and together will remove nearly 290,000 bpd. Oil consuming countries remain comfortably protected for now by a global stock excess estimated as high as 500 million barrels in a world market that uses 75 million barrels daily.

To: ldo79 who wrote (40641)	3/23/1999 10:39:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Will someone send George @ NOESIS a pre-need Gift Certificate ie: as in pre-paid ''Burial'' .... because he is the proverbial ''Dead Man Walking Web Site'' --- this guy is totally clueless and has clearly showed the world what a sheer ''spin doctor'' he was - only trying to catch the ''Gloom & Doom'' Posterchild Label by his infamously WRONG - $8 Crude call....or is it now, $10, or is it now $12 ? keep going George - and maybe enough people will forget that it was $8 and when you get up to $12-15 then you can claim you were right <VBG>.... sure we will get a post OPEC euphoria retracement in crude prices - but NOT Georges $8, or his $10... IE: his comments; ***************************************************************************** <<The price of crude oil has been increasing on pure speculation! There has been no significant change in world supplies, demand, or U.S. inventories. Since there is no real increase in demand on the part of refineries, the only demand driving prices is the demand created in futures trading. When futures prices increase and hold, spot prices follow. Right now, there is no reason to modify the March forecast for crude oil prices: >> ****************************************************************************** George long ago lost his neutral, non -partisan statistician/analyst credibility; with all of his creative license editing and personal commentary. His analysis on - ''ignore the numbers''; coming from a ''number interpreter'' pretty much was his death knell... what is amazing; is that in classic near-Clintonesque fashion; he on one hand, wants us to ignore the upside of present market prices - as they are ''not'' based on positive numbers'' - as we are basically at the same supply levels of last year... But - yet ! he had the audacity for months to preach in his infamous duplicitious manner than we should believe the $10 crude prices and NOT believe the fact that the supply numbers were indeed - ''the same as last year'' - WHEN THEY SUPPORTED $16 Oil ! - you can't discount the ''same'' numbers on on the upside, but yet want to use them as your standard bearer on the downside... We are supposed to ignore the speculative nature of market prices when they are going up - but yet, we were NOT supposed to ignore their same irrationality when they were going down....George - talk about wanting it both ways ! Get over it ! - NOESIS is DEAD WRONG ! ...all this guy ever did was throw out a low ball, Doom & Gloom Crude Oil price target when that was clearly where the trend was taking us; and most importantly - when that is what people wanted to hear.... Now; when it takes a real analyst to interpret and make projections based on a fast acting market place; he has fallen off the map.... good luck George - nice knowing you ---- $8 Oil huh; no demand, supply unchanged.... hang on to that mantra; because you're the only one who is...<VBG> !