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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (46866)	3/23/1999 9:27:00 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Olu, >> Wrong! NSOL is extended. Thanks. I'll figure out this TA eventually. So is amzn in an up or down trend now ? Is it on the verge of breaking out or breaking down ? Will it close today at 120 or 140 ? Oh well, we'll just let amzn tell us in its own words (numbers) at its convenience (as the time and sales data streams out).

To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (46866)	3/23/1999 2:35:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

3 was 50% by this period, suggesting the participation rate is higher than many had suspected. Further, there is evidence that the frequency (repeat buying) of Internet retailing is high too: 60% of AOL users plan on buying something on the Internet in the next month, 90% plan on doing so in the next 6 months. This is bullish news not only for AOL, but also for other Internet companies whose models are leveraged to e-commerce: YHOO and AMZN primary among them. With AOL's backlog up to about $1.2 billion now, our $200 million in other revenue could be a touch low, though importantly, much of that figure (85%) was already in the bag before any of us even starting worrying about the March quarter. In Toto, We Think You'll Find Our Earnings Estimate A Touch Low In sum, we suspect our $0.10 EPS estimate is in the bag, with a penny upside pretty likely given the fact that AOL seems to be firing (once again) on all its cylinders). On the Netscape front, the transaction was cleared by the FTC and likely to close by the end of next week, pending next Wednesday's Netscape shareholder vote. We suspect management won't be guiding analysts' P&Ls beyond the “neutral near-term, slightly accretive long term” mantra that we've heard until possibly after their analysts' day (timing TBA but looks like early May). After that, all bets are off; we could start to see the Street's numbers come up to meet what looks like (preliminarily) conservative estimates for Netscape's license and portal revenue. Stay tuned. Forget About What You've Heard: AOL Is Under Very Little Threat From Broadband If you're a regular reader of The Internet Capitalist, you know by now that we believe AOL is (1) in the cat-bird seat w/r/t broadband and (2) that ultimately, as the owner of 16+ million accounts, they will be driving the process. We came away from our meetings with even greater conviction that AOL will be the biggest beneficiary of the evolution of broadband. To put in @Homeian terms: with the DSL deals that they've been signing (most recently SBC, but also Bell Atlantic and GTE) AOL's DSL broadband service now passes more than 8 million of AOL's current subscribing households. Today that's 21 states; with the proposed Ameritech merger, more than 66% of AOL households could upgrade to Broadband service. Importantly, the DSL deals AOL has been striking have become more attractive to AOL from an economic standpoint (that is, it is costing them less and less in co-marketing dollars and subscriber guarantees). Remember, Broadband Success Is A Function Of Three Factors We would encourage investors to recognize that broadband is not simply an infrastructure issue: the guys with the most pipe don't necessarily win. Remember how important customer service (that is, everyday hand-holding for mass market consumers) is to this game; no one (not the cable companies, not the telephony companies, and not @Home/XCIT) comes anywhere close to matching AOL on this front. Broadband success will accrue to those companies that (1) have plenty of narrow-band customers, (2) ownership of or access to fat pipes (either coax cable or copper DSL), and (3) the corporate infrastructure (customer service and consumer marketing assets) to make broadband a reality for the mass market. AOL has got all three of these and, with the latest deal with SBC, is making the second factor a real non-starter vis-à-vis @Home/XCIT. What's The Next Big Phase Of AOL's Growth From Here? What We Call “The Third Wave” So what's the next big phase of AOL's growth from here? If you're like us, you've wondered aloud about this very issue. How can AOL grow it market cap beyond these already stratospheric levels (beyond, of course, executing on their