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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tang who wrote (7724)	3/24/1999 9:20:00 AM
From: Boplicity	Respond to of 41369

Abby Joseph-Cohen : according to Goldman Sachs market strategist, Abby Joseph-Cohen raises targets for the S&P 500 and the Dow; ups S&P 500 range from 1275-1300 to 1325 and the Dow Jones index from 9850 to 10,300; believes that everything is still okay with market, despite recent market trend.....

To: tang who wrote (7724)	3/24/1999 9:47:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 41369

Thank you, tang. Although not many on this thread are buying or holding AOL on fundamental grounds, I feel compelled to shatter the fundamental case of many bullish analysts. It's that simple- there's an upper limit to growth. Let's find out what that limit is for AOL- Let's assume that each and every family in America that can afford it, will have 1.2 AOL subscribers. That's 100 million subscribers upper limit, or six times today's number. EBITDA should be what? $6-7B? let's say $10B. Remember, there is NO GROWTH from the upper limit. So a multiple of 8 on the EBITDA is more then reasonable. That gives you an upper limit of $80B market cap for AOL when it reaches its growth limit. Long term best case scenario. And if this scenario has 100% to materialize, current AOL market cap should not exceed $60B, or half of its current value. The prosecution rests. ATG