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To: Lucretius who wrote (27399)	3/24/1999 11:23:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Luc, you know this post is pretty persuasive....and I was sure that I had not had any ThunderChicken today......nor do I see any spent tubes of Glue.... You may be right about this scenerio. -ng-

To: Lucretius who wrote (27399)	3/24/1999 11:39:00 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

>>. hence I think we get a stock mkt crash on Monday, 4/5/99 << Have you been looking at the Bradley chart? 38.209.4.67

To: Lucretius who wrote (27399)	3/24/1999 12:01:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

LT, I sincerely appreciate your bearish viewpoint on the dollar/yen.<ng> Your counterpoints make worthwhile reassessments for my position, which I am not married to. But let me advance my counterarguments to your perspective. (1)Everybody is on the same side of the boat when it comes to end-of-March repatriation so the expectational surprise may likely be opposite, especially so close to the end of the month. Much repatriation may have already been executed. (2)A rising yen is a definite threat to Japan's recovery. Currency intervention by BOJ/MOF is highly likely below 117. This operation would buy dollars/sell yen, actually augment their current money growth strategy, and aid more profitable repatriation in the process. (3)Commercial positions in yen futures are often arbitrage positions and therefore reveal little about hedger intentions that some believe are meaningful in other markets. Yen futures are insignificant to the forward currency market. (4)IMHO an equity crash in the US that slows down US real activity would remove the last underpinning of global growth and potentially damage Europe, Lat.Am., the Far East including Japan even more than here. But a depression scenario is highly unlikely unless you count the many depressed Internet and other overexposed equity investors who may lose significant expected wealth. The dollar should continue to be a safe haven in the event of global turmoil. BWDIK. Good luck.