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To: Defrocked who wrote (27417)	3/24/1999 12:13:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

I have been wrong before and will be again.. but your arguments are exactly what I think the consensus will be and that's why we will crash. The key about crashes (up and down) is that they are UNEXPECTED. The yen will rise not because of repatriation but because the positons will be set up so that nature takes its course and pulls it higher. hedge fund repaying of loan will acclerate the crash-up in yen. a higher yen and higher L-T int rates, IMO, will pull Japan out of their problems. It will give them a nice spread for their banks and their consumers will have huge purchasing power. yes exports to US will suffer (that's why I am shorting SNE) and it will appear that the world is ending (that's why mkts all over the world will crash) but their domestic economy has already bottomed will do better. their mkt should bottom or hit a 2ndary bottom when the exporters get globbered. The cycle must change... the US was in Japan's position back in the 20's (creditor, strong currency, exporter) and we moved to an importer. Japan will do the same over time. you can't ignore compelling trader's commitments... I knew many who shorted the yen last Summer in the face of huge long commercial positions cause they thought Japan was going to implode... they were MOWED. I expect many similarly smart clowns to think that the yen will fall after the yr-end so naturally they will short it and add to the buying binge on the crash-up. Surprise is the key. A crash occurs from a SURPRISE. For the yen to rise AFTER 3/31 would shock most.. but they won't believe it till 4/5 when the yen makes a huge break against the dollar over the weekend.. then they'll know... no gov intervention, no help... just F*CKED... and you get a crash because the obvious has beeen revealed to all at once, just as crashes historically occur. just my speculation...

To: Defrocked who wrote (27417)	3/24/1999 12:41:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 86076

Hi, Def, been thinking about this statement ~~3)Commercial positions in yen futures are often arbitrage positions and therefore reveal little about hedger intentions that some believe are meaningful in other markets. Yen futures are insignificant to the forward currency market. ~~ what you say about arbitrage makes sense. Since short-term rates are higher in the US than in Japan and have expanded this past month. Then if I am long $/yen, every day I hold my position I am earning points that are moving my trade further down giving me a lower cost basis. If I don't want market risk I go in and get a long yen position in the futures to offset my short yen in the cash market. Hence I have no directional exposure to the dollar/yen rate and captured the interest-rate differentials between the 2 currencies. so that may account for some of the long commercials on yen. thanks for that. John