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To: Earlie who wrote (27400)	3/24/1999 11:38:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 86076

GSR is my favorite junior play.... book value is around 2.5 and it is asking 13/16. They have several producing mines but need about 325 to be profitable... they should get that in a couple weeks -ng- They also have lots of great prospects, has been called one of the best portfolios around (hence it was $20 a couple yrs ago) Tice owns a load of it in his BEARX fund, and some very high powered gold guys were backing it as recently as 1997... when gold roars back.. they'll be there again but at much higher prices -g-

To: Earlie who wrote (27400)	3/24/1999 12:09:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Micron Under the Microscope Hi earlie what do you think about these ruminations? -g- By Marcy Burstiner Staff Reporter 3/24/99 9:04 AM ET SAN FRANCISCO-In Napa Valley, they plant roses around grapevines to check for early signs of disease or infestation. In Silicon Valley, they watch Micron Technology (MU:NYSE) for signs of failing health. Micron is the leading maker of memory chips, a widely sold commodity whose pricing is driven almost entirely by supply and demand. Other chips, such as those that power PCs, see prices shift based on additional factors such as brand and speed. Micron is also a favorite of technology investors these days, because market research companies like Dataquest predict memory sales will expand more than 50% annually over the next few years as the industry rebounds from a four-year slump. Micron is expected to report second-quarter earnings Wednesday after the market closes, but analysts are all over the map on its prospects. A First Call survey of 19 analysts forecasts a break-even quarter, improving on a year-ago loss of 23 cents a share. The range of forecasts swings from a profit of 10 cents a share to a loss of 17 cents. "I would be surprised if they make less than 20 cents a share," says Shaker Investments portfolio manager Edward Hemmelgarn, whose $300 million fund is long Micron. In the second quarter, the company saw 50% growth in sales of bits, a measurement for memory, from the previous quarter, Hemmelgarn says. Micron has also kept its costs steady, so that growth should translate into higher profits, he adds. Hemmelgarn expects to see revenue above $1 billion, which would be up substantially from the $755 million the company reported for the same quarter last year. A 50% growth in bit shipments in one quarter would be "phenomenal," says Dataquest analyst Jim Handy, because the market as a whole is expected to grow 65% for the full year. In the short term, Micron thrives when prices of dynamic random access memory chips rise. Micron's stock price began rising June 15, a few weeks after DRAM prices started to recover and three months before the general semiconductor rebound that began Oct. 8, and rose 295% before peaking Feb. 3 at 79 ½. Since then the stock has fallen 33% as word has spread of falling DRAM prices. Memory chips in the spot market are now selling at an average price of $8.50, up from $7.50 in June but down from about $10 in January. But Hemmelgarn and BancBoston Robertson Stephens analyst Dan Niles believe that falling DRAM prices will help Micron in the long run by driving out competition. In the meantime, Niles says, Micron is cutting manufacturing costs faster than DRAM prices are falling. Niles, who has a strong buy on Micron, expects to see a 10-cent-a-share profit on $971 million in quarterly revenue. Shekhar Wadekar, a chip analyst with Raymond James, is less enthusiastic about Micron's prospects. Wadekar, who has a neutral rating on the stock, says investors got carried away in the latter half of last year, mistaking rising memory-chip prices for rising demand. Instead, prices firmed because of a transition from 16-megabyte chips to the denser 64-megabyte chips. That shift caused a temporary shortage, but now supplies have picked up and prices are falling. Wadekar declined to give an earnings estimate for the second quarter, saying it's too difficult to predict. If Micron comes through, it won't be the first time the company has surprised Wall Street. Just last quarter, when the consensus called for a 28-cent loss, Micron beat the Street by 9 cents.