To: Eggolas Moria who wrote (111799 ) 3/24/1999 5:11:00 PM From: JRI Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
Gary- It is really harsh to define a gross margin decline of .1% as "eroding"....also given the sequential rise in net margins...To me, "erosion" implies a much great problem, does it not? Part of the (unreasonable) bear game is to make a little problem seem bigger than it is...and therefore, imply that the consequences (to the stock) are greater than they are.... I am not implying that you are an "unreasonable" bear....your posts seem to be pretty balanced on the whole.... I don't think that this (eroding margins) was a reason for Dell's stock recent decline....Dell did go parabolic from 80-110, and deserved a pullback...it (the 80-110 bullet up) was not in line with long-term growth...the stock corrected back to the 80-85 (I am obviously using pre-split here)...it has consistently corrected from 15-25% post-earnings each earnings period of the last 6/7......lately, the stock has been driven down lately due to the constant, overdone barrage concerning a slowdown in PC sales in Q1 (when reality is, this quarter's growth, for the industry, will be pretty typical of Q1's)....Dell is looking to have a pretty good quarter...with revenues growing in the low 40's y-o-y, earnings in the high 40's, and EPS in the mid 50's,y-o-y....We will see where the Street values Dell going into earnings and after, but I am betting the dell will make a pretty nice run into earnings during April/early May.... additionally, Dell's stock dropped (last quarter) due to 38% "only" y-o-y revenue increase...had it been 45% (with NO corresponding increase in earnings)...the stock probably would have corrected to 90, and held.....Nonetheless, the proof (for all PC makers) will come out soon..the fear mongering, guessing, etc. will soon be over.... Thanks for your contribution...