To: Terry W Weaver who wrote (6499 ) 3/25/1999 12:48:00 AM From: Ed Perry Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 17679
<< 12 Months in the evolution of technology is an eon. >> As an investor, I am involved in another Internet stock. This has given me a sense of the various time frames involved. While increasing in pace over the recent decades past, basic R&D and applied engineering still must evolve over an "appropriate" time. Without this time spent, the products will not work. In some contexts, this product failure can lead to product liability concerns and possibly ruinous litigation. This means, that whatever you have now, is what you have to go with - near term. Otherwise, you must acquire or license the techno-knowledge. Ampex is in good shape on this score. What is faster than these engineering and technological realities are the obscenities of the equity markets for publicly traded shares involved in these events. Here, what seems to be happening is a rolling focus on one Net sector than another. This focus is aided and abetted by the market makers and other self interested parties - a bit different than directing capital to where it will be most effectively employed. What I see as happening to Ampex, is in the upcoming future, sometime in the next one to three years, the rolling focus will visit Ampex's portfolio and AXC share prices will be bid up, by participating parties, to unrealistic levels. After the inevitable, the focus will move on. And so should you - quickly and without looking back - sad isn't it? While I am not diminishing the importance of solid products and services, exciting and imaginative media productions and sound conservative financial practices, actually, all these things are necessary, I am emphasizing the casino quality of investing in the Net related sector. In practice, this means that an investor must bet that the vehicle he chooses is well positioned to "catch the wave" of an expected future event. Fundamentals and TA can narrow the field, but it will take a "Nose" to sniff out where the real action will be. Timing is pretty rough. Who can say what the effect will be from shifting advantage arising out of some merger or acquisition? I think that this may be part of the reason that Net sector gets both bad financial press and under-coverage from the ‘serious' investment community. Meanwhile, enjoy the new frontier. However, this frontier is more of a financial market phenomena than an engineering or technological event. Eventually, after the current wave of investment runs it's course and the relevant portfolio of innovation is implemented, an industry consolidation will occur and a slowdown on all fronts (remember biotech?). But, this is much into the future. Right now, we are in the "gale" portion of creative destruction. I still think Ampex is a good bet and no matter what this company doesn't do, or even does right, it will "catch one of the upcoming waves." The trick is in picking a vehicle that will have future merchandising value in it's share prices. Ed Perry