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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DavidG who wrote (44315)	3/25/1999 1:46:00 PM
From: John Graybill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

I am not one for believing any analyst but if you had to pick one would you choose the one that is mostly right ...or...mostly wrong. Pick the analyst with inside information, good point! :-)

To: DavidG who wrote (44315)	3/25/1999 3:20:00 PM
From: A. A. LaFountain III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Re: "...but which analyst was way off...hint it wasn't Niles.<vbg>" To refresh what appears to be a selective memory, here's the table from my original post of more than a month ago. Note the forecasted 2QF99 bit shipment growth: Table 1: Micron/Industry DRAM Model (no scale, arbitrary units with industry base level set to 1,000 and Micron base set to 12% of industry) Base 1Q Q/Q 2Q Q/Q 3Q Q/Q 4Q Q/Q MU Production 120 132 10% 160 21% 193 21% 234 21% Shipments 120 108 –10 184 70 193 5 234 21 Inventory 0 24 0 0 0 Rest of Market Production 880 1,038 18% 1,225 18% 1,446 18% 1,706 18% Shipments 880 1,038 18 1,225 18 1,446 18 1,706 18 Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 Total Market Production 1,000 1,170 17% 1,385 18% 1,639 18% 1,940 18% Shipments 1,000 1,146 15 1,409 23 1,639 16 1,940 18 Inventory 0 24 0 0 0 MU/Market 12% 9% 13% 12% 12% Other analysts have indicated bit growth forecasts in this range, but they were continuously updated as the quarter went on (and after it ended). A change to this model in response to the quarter is the production growth rate going forward, as it does appear that the maturation of the 0.21 micron process was captured at an accelerated rate. Of course, that development doesn't get repeated in subsequent quarters. Your previous assertion that Micron's market share was much greater than 10% has been proven substantially off the mark. In fact, it now appears that Micron's market share for 2Q was 14%, awfully close to the 13% modeled above. Note that the 20% claim in the conference call was not supported by any data. All of the hard data comes in laughably below the 25% share claim of some other brokerage firms. As previously stated, I believe that Micron is in the process of pulling together an impressive cyclical move. But that move is unlikely to be created seamlessly or, for that matter, rapidly enough to justify some of the more aggressive valuations bandied about. I would think that some additional allowance in the stock price for some of these concerns would be appropriate. - Tad LaFountain