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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: capt rocky who wrote (17819)	3/25/1999 3:54:00 PM
From: Panita	Respond to of 93625

Sold RMBS earlier at 68 3/16 traded WCAP and now back in RMBS at 66 1/8.

To: capt rocky who wrote (17819)	3/25/1999 5:08:00 PM
From: Mkilloran	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

capt....Sony Playstation II and new Nintendo next xmas should help RMBS ...but I expect these sales will be posted in 1st qtr yr2000 for RMBS not 4th qtr 1999.

To: capt rocky who wrote (17819)	3/25/1999 7:12:00 PM
From: Dave B	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 93625

capt, Disagreement is a good thing <g>. But I'm not sure we're disagreeing about the same issue. My key point was about the effect of this Christmas on sales, not the drivers of Rambus long term (but I'll give you my opinion on that shortly <g>). Here's your message: Rambus INSIDE is the savior for the major box makers. it is THE new standard. It is what will make those premium pcs sell and eventually trickle down to the cheap boxes.intel, compac' dell,ibm, even amd. must have rmbs to move into the faster processors. don't forget playstation II . Christmas is huge for that stuff. once rmbs is out in the mainstream no one will want sdram in new machines even if they are cheaper.moores law gang. it works. capt. rocky There's nothing here that I disagree with. What I think we're disagreeing on is the specific effect of Christmas sales on Rambus. I'll bet Rambus won't be in any boxes costing less than $2000 this Christmas. May not even be in boxes costing less than $2500. It's coming out too close to Christmas and quantities are limited (call now, operators are standing by <g>). With all the hype surrounding $500 systems, $2000 systems aren't going to be a big Christmas topic. And $500 systems won't have Rambus. It's not "required" (whatever that means) in a 400Mhz Celeron system. Playstation II isn't out until Christmas of 2000 so that won't have an effect this year. There are certainly a number of customers who will want the performance that a PIII with Rambus provides (at least those who didn't already buy a PIII not knowing anything about Rambus). And that will drive sales from the get-go. But Christmas doesn't have anything to do with it, I believe. If Rambus had come out this Summer, those same customers would have dived right in. So I agree that Rambus will help premium PCs sell, and that may happen at Christmastime but it's not because of Christmastime. By Christmas 2000, Rambus should have come down the cost curve far enough that it will be in $1000+ computers. Maybe even a little lower. Christmas may have more of an effect then (unless the hype is about the sub-$100 computers <g>). And of course the Playstation II will kick some royal ass. I'm already planning to get one of those myself. Finally, in 2001, Rambus will finish coming down the cost and production curves far enough that by Christmas 2001, it'll be in everything. So, in summary, the two big drivers for Rambus, I think, are: 1) the people who really need high-end performance who will drive initial sales at release (regardless of the time of year), and 2) the descent down the cost curve (which will determine how fast it moves into cheaper and cheaper boxes). But Christmas 1999 won't do much to drive Rambus sales because it will only be in the most expensive systems which aren't Christmas items. What do you think? Are we in agreement? Dave