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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JMD who wrote (25140)	3/26/1999 4:42:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 152472

249 posts in one day = New Q! stream record. 9.5 million shares traded is about the 4th biggest ever. There have definitely been a couple over 10 million per day, but those were going DOWN. Q! including Leap is now over $100 per share since Leap has leaped. Q! has patents in OFDM somebody said yesterday. See: techstocks.com I had thought an infrastructure joint venture more likely but a total sale is fine with me. Maybe it's better to leave it all to Ericy to try to make it work which means Q! carries no risk and is not handcuffed to a hagfish. Even if it is a rehabilitated one. Ericy should value the infrastructure division much more highly than Q! does, so Ericy is the logical owner of it. That is because they are much more capable of competing in places like NZ, China and Europe where they have engineering and marketing operation and Q! has none, having to build them from scratch. There are $$billions in vendor financing and other commitments Q! has contracted to provide so it is not surprising that the cash from the infrastructure sale is all taken up and a charge might result. Presumably Q! keeps the marketing contracts such as the Chile venture so that a stream of revenue arrives from the networks which have been built using Q! vendor financing. Stuff like that. I suspect Irwin and co are capable of getting a good price. The charge is not surprising. There will be money coming in which will more than balance the charge. On the chip rate, it seems to me that Q! will know very well the competitive outcome of W-CDMA [no longer vapourwear since the King has gone out and bought a decent pair of pants instead of fake silver and golden raiment - it must have got a bit embarrassing with the King's doodle hanging out and the crowd starting to snicker]. Q! might be perfectly happy for Vodafone/AirTouch and other operators to make a choice of chip rate, synchronisation and bells and whistles. Why force a chip rate on Ericy, AirTouch and everyone else? If they want to choose something silly like 4.0xx chip rate, let them try to make it work as long as they hand over the appropriate royalties. Q! probably won't bother supporting that chip rate with chips so Ericy will have to try to invent them themselves. I think any other chip rate than the cdmaOne one will prove technically impossible for licensed ASIC makers to produce and there will be reduced subscriber utility with a weird rate so there will be no demand for it. Presuming that Q! is correct that the higher chip rates confer no advantage. Which seems likely. Multimode is a sop. Multimode will be ephemeral and given little serious attention other than between GSM/cdmaOne/cdma2000/Globalstar. Analogue will be ignored and will quickly fizzle. TDMA will be hung out to dry. AT&T must be having some serious discussions about what to do. I see no reason for Ericy to continue with W-CDMA since they have a licenceto produce cdma2000. Multiband [leading to software radio?] will be important. Andrew Viterbi was reported as saying this is the harder part; multimode is not so tricky. But still manageable. Royalty rates seem as though they are going to be much, much lower than the extorquerationately usurious levels I had hoped for [15%]. Not to worry, with 1 billion people paying something like $15 in ASIC and royalty value to Q! we should be fine. With lots of other stuff to top up the till. Ericy and Q! seem to have some agreement where each will pay the other for what they use of each other's technology. Since I can't see Q! wanting to use much GSM stuff, I suppose the money will form a one way river from Ericy to Q! bottom line. This is the area where Q! judgement about the technology developments possible will be important. If they can get 20x capacity and cdma2000 really singing, there will be a rapid overlay of GSM which will be an instant anachronism. Leap is bidding up a storm in the C-Block reauction, presumably on the strength of developments they know will be coming. Well, that's the first part...have to go now...might try to remember what else I thought some other time. Overall, I'm happy as Larry. I understand Clark's concerns but think them not too problematic. Will check again in the cold light of day. Mqurice

To: JMD who wrote (25140)	3/26/1999 7:55:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

JMD, hey thread master, it is time to round up the troops and stop all this Dellish yepping on the thread. We all know the news and we have seen every twist of the story from every publishing source in the world. Other than the famous "mouth of the south (far south)", we are best known for strong analysis here. Why don't we all work on some numbers, instead of quoting and requoting who said what. Frankly, my valuation of QCOM has totally been destroyed by the events of the last few days. One money losing division with questionable future has just been chopped off. The market for the handsets and most important, the ASICs, just exploded. I suspect they are going to having capacity and backlog problems going forward. I have no idea what the new revenue and earnings look like, bearing in mind that their handset operations has been more profitable qtr after qtr. On the royalty and license fee front, is a new round coming for the new standard? We are know how much this item goes right to the bottom line. How about WLL? We have not heard much about this component but I wonder who would not use CDMA now. So, how about it. Lets see some good numbers. Ramsey