DRAMs -- Manufacturers beginning to climb out of a deep canyon
Mar. 26, 1999 (Electronic Buyers News - CMP via COMTEX) -- After a
three-year plunge, DRAM suppliers are beginning to climb back. Global
sales, which dropped in 1998 to $13.9 billion, compared with more than
$40 billion just three years earlier, will rise this year to $19.1
billion, according to Semico Research Corp. Sales will continue to
recover over the next three years, increasing to $27 billion in 2000,
$37 billion in 2001, and $40.2 billion in 2002, the Phoenix-based
research firm said.
During the down year of 1998, DRAM suppliers shipped 3.4 billion
units; but during this year's expected upturn, unit shipments will
decline to about 3 billion and be in the 3.5 billion range for the next
three years, Semico estimates. A major reason is that ASPs are expected
to rise for higher-performing DRAMs, as demand from PC OEMs exceeds a
restricted supply resulting from lack of sufficient investment by DRAM
makers in newer process technologies of 0.22 micron and below.
Price stabilization should continue through the first half of this
year, principally because of strong demand, according to Avo Kanadjian,
memory marketing vice president at Samsung Semiconductor Inc., San
Jose. He attributes part of the increased demand to the Y2K phenomenon,
as companies busily upgrade to become compliant. About 20% of the
installed base of computers is subject to replacement, Kanadjian said.
Japanese companies won't deal with any company that's not Y2K
compliant, he added.
DRAM vendors are also facing major technological changes. Different
DRAM architectures, such as synchronous DRAM, double-data-rate
synchronous DRAM, and synchronous graphics RAM, are expected to find
their way into various applications. Most eyes, however, are focused on
Direct Rambus DRAM and its anointment by Intel Corp. for use in
high-end PCs.
Semico sees a gradual ramp for Direct RDRAM this year, depending on
how quickly it goes into production and how well PCs containing it
sell.
Of major importance now is running the right product mix of EDO,
SDRAM, Rambus DRAM, and Direct RDRAM to meet today's market demands,
according to Jeff Mailloux, DRAM marketing manager at Micron Technology
Inc., Boise, Idaho. Because not all suppliers have the size and
critical mass to satisfy everybody, he sees the emergence of
application-specific DRAM as some smaller vendors by necessity focus on
niche markets. Bigger suppliers, however, have to address larger parts
of the market to keep their fabs humming, he said.
Perhaps the most significant trend among DRAM manufacturers is their
changing base, according to Will Mulhern, product marketing manager of
the Memory Division at NEC Electronics Inc., Santa Clara, Calif. Last
year's Micron-TI deal, the pending LG Semicon-Hyundai merger, Philips
Electronics' recent efforts to acquire VLSI Technology, and hints from
other suppliers that they might exit the market are all unsettling, he
said.
A related question is whether consolidation is necessary for the
building of new fabs, as no one is currently making enough money to
upgrade fabs, much less construct new ones, Mulhern said. Upgrading
fabs can be a very expensive proposition, he noted. For example,
shrinking technology processes from 0.5 to 0.3 micron requires two fab
upgrades, Mulhern pointed out, adding that such exorbitant expenses
will probably lead to a slowing of density growth.
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DIRECTORY FOR TOP-RANKED DRAM SUPPLIERS
Hitachi Semiconductor (America) Inc.
179 E. Tasman Dr.
San Jose, Calif. 95134
(800) 285-1601
www.hitachi.com/semiconductor
Sales contact: (800) 285-1601, ext. 27
Products: 64-Mbit SDRAM (PC66, PC100); 64-Mbit EDO DRAM; 128-Mbit
SDRAM; 16-Mbit EDO DRAM
Developments: The company focused efforts on 256-Mbit SDRAM, 64-Mbit
PC133/DDR SDRAM, and 1-Gbyte PC100 SDRAM DIMMs.
Plans: n/a
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Hyundai Electronics America
3101 N. First St.
San Jose, Calif. 95134
(408) 232-8000
www.hea.com
Sales contact: Gary Swanson, vice president of sales, (408) 232-8326
Products: 16-, 64-Mbit SDRAM; 16-, 64-Mbit EDO DRAM
Developments: The company created a worldwide supply-chain management
system that can deliver memory products to primary computer OEMs within
two hours of order. It also began operation of Hyundai Semiconductor
America in Eugene, Ore. The new plant is producing 64-Mbit DRAMs at 30,
000 wafers per month.
Plans: Will introduce Direct Rambus DRAM in production quantities by
the middle of the second quarter. Will continue to develop its
0.35-micron flash line introduced last year.
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IBM Microelectronics
1580 Rte. 52
Hopewell Junction, N.Y.
12533-6531
(914) 894-2121
Sales contact: n/a
Products: n/a
Developments: n/a
Plans: n/a
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LG Semicon America Inc.
3003 N. First St.
San Jose, Calif. 95134-2004
(408) 432-5000
www.lgsa.com
Sales contact: (408) 432-5000
Products: 32-,128-Mbit PC100 SDRAM modules; 64-Mbit PC100 SDRAM;
64-Mbit EDO DRAM; 16-Mbit DRAM and SDRAM
Developments: Developed and sampled a 72-Mbit Direct Rambus DRAM and
RIMM modules, a 128-Mbit PC133 SDRAM, and a 16-Mbit, 143-MHz SDRAM for
graphics applications. LG also introduced a shrink-version 64-Mbit
SDRAM supporting applications up to 166 MHz.
Plans: Will continue to develop and introduce DRAM technology, and
possibly merge with Hyundai Electronics to create a full-featured
product portfolio.
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Micron Technology Inc.
8000 S. Federal Way
P.O. Box 6
Boise, Idaho 83707-0006
(208) 368-4400
www.micron.com
Sales contact: Mike Sadler, vice president of sales, (208) 368-3900
Products: 64-Mbit PC100 SDRAM; 16-, 64-Mbit EDO DRAM; 64-Mbit DDR
SDRAM; 16-Mbit SDRAM
Developments: Acquisition of virtually all of Texas Instruments'
memory business; conversion to 0.21-micron process technology; and the
introduction of leading-edge solutions, including PC133 SDRAMs, DDR
DRAMs, and SLDRAMs.
Plans: Will transition newly acquired facilities to its 0.21-micron
process technology, while continuing its move to 0.18-micron
technology. Will introduce 128-Mbit RDRAM.
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Mitsubishi Electronics America Inc.
Electronic Device Group
1050 E. Arques Ave.
Sunnyvale, Calif. 94086
(408) 730-5900
www.mitsubishichips.com
Sales contact: www.mitsubishichips.com/contact/
no_amer/no_amer.htm
Products: 64-Mbit PC66 and PC100 SDRAM; 64-Mbit EDO DRAM; 64-Mbit
Fast-Page DRAM; 3D-RAM and Cache DRAM for 3D graphics and other system
applications
Developments: Expanded and upgraded 64-Mbit capacity to 0.25 micron;
introduced 128-Mbit SDRAM, 72-Mbit Direct Rambus DRAM samples, and
3D-RAM4 at 125 MHz.
Plans: Will ramp up 128-Mbit DRAM and PC133 SDRAM; start Direct RDRAM
mass production; introduce DDR SDRAM; move to 0.18-micron process
technology; start 256-Mbit mass production; and introduce a new 3D-RAM
architecture.
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NEC Electronics Inc.
2880 Scott Blvd.
Santa Clara, Calif. 95050
(408) 588-6000
www.necel.com
Sales contact: (800) 366-9782
Products: 4-, 16-, and 64-Mbit SDRAM; 64-Mbit EDO DRAM; 16-Mbit SGRAM
Developments: NEC focused on 64-Mbit Virtual Channel Memory (VCM)
72-Mbit Direct Rambus DRAM and 128-Mbit DDR SDRAM.
Plans: Will continue emphasis on VCM, Direct RDRAM, and PC133 SDRAM.
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Samsung Semiconductor Inc.
3655 N. First St.
San Jose, Calif. 95134-1713
(408) 544-4124
www.samsungsemi.com
Sales contact: Richard Haas, (408) 544-4124
Products: 64-, 128-Mbit SDRAM; 16-, 128-, and 256-Mbyte SDRAM DIMMs
Developments: Started mass production of 128- and 256-Mbit PC100
SDRAM; continued emphasis on line of modules, from 4-Mbyte SIMMs to
1-Gbyte DIMMs; completed Phase 11 expansion of its Austin, Texas, fab.
Plans: Will transition to 0.18-micron process technology; introduce
high-density parts such as 256-Mbit Direct Rambus DRAM and 128- and
256-Mbit PC133 and DDR SDRAM. Samsung will complete construction of Fab
9 in Kiheung, Korea, dedicated to production of 256-Mbit SDRAM and
Direct RDRAM.
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Siemens Microelectronics Inc.
1730 N. First St.
San Jose, Calif. 95112
(408) 501-6000
www.smi.siemens.com
Sales contact: Chee Ho, DRAM product marketing manager, (408) 777-4978
Products: n/a
Developments: Delivered PC100-compliant DIMMs based on 256-Mbit CAS
Latency 2 SDRAMs. The modules are manufactured on 0.2-micron process
technology and fit into a 400-mil TSOP-54 package.
Plans: n/a
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Toshiba America Electronic Components Inc.
9775 Toledo Way
Irvine, Calif. 92618
(949) 455-2000
www.toshiba.com/taec
Sales contact: n/a
Products: 64-Mbit PC100 SDRAM x 4, 8;128-Mbit PC100 SDRAM x 4, 8
Developments: Moved to 0.25-micron process technology and shipped
72-Mbit Direct Rambus DRAM; introduced 128-Mbit SDRAM at 0.2 micron.
Plans: Will ship 144/128-Mbit Direct RDRAM at 0.2 micron; continue
its focus on 128-Mbit SDRAM for server and workstation applications;
and transition to 0.175-micron design.
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