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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shibumi who wrote (17870)	3/26/1999 6:15:00 PM
From: abuck95	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Shibumi about the Micron statement posted here yesterday. Your notes on them milking present technology sound good to me. As for the roll out of RDRAM Samsung appears to be the leader with a 4 to 6 month lead time on Micron. I get the feeling Micron is talking down Rambus in hopes of pressuring OEM into forcing INTEL hand, and giving them the necessary time to catch up. Everyone wants to be #1 and if Samsung can aggressively play their position, who knows how long they can maintain a competitive advantage on Micron. At some point I would think Intel would tell them to shut up and get to work. Good Luck abuck

To: Shibumi who wrote (17870)	3/27/1999 4:02:00 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

hi shibumi, intc previously stated (feb) that only one of the 5 mfr had the rdram process perfected, therefore a delay. i think the guys who got it right were samsung, and they are moving swiftly ahead to capture as much of the rdram market as they can. attempting to make it difficult for everyone, including mu, who is late. that is good business. originally (nov 98), the plan was for mu to get on board the bus in late 99. mu was slow to commit to rdram. i'm sure it took a good while and a lot of stalling to bleed $500 million from intc. since then, the rest of the rdram mfrs woke up and have made a big rdram committment and issued statements like (hyundai), we plan to fill the anticipated rdram shortfall with our rdram production beginning 2Q, 1999. it seemed that they were trying to shut the door on mu before it could ever be opened. i am sure it scared the heck out of mu. the last dog doesn't get much bone. remember sdram production is unprofitable(nobody wants to get stuck in the sdram business); rdram production is projected to be very profitable. again good business, but they ran into production problems that slowed them down providing an opening for mu again. now though, we have a shortage of test equipment. 17 rdram mfrs are competing to buy x testers. if mu ordered their test equip late, or if they ordered the same test equip being used by the 4 guys who got production wrong, they are still way behind. this would explain mu's management's frustration. ineptitude and dumb strategy never feels good. stalling in switching to rdram to get financial considerations from intc gave all the competition the lead. no wonder mu's ceo wants to hit someone. remember too, as far as mu is concerned rambus is sleeping with them and is in bed with the enemy. but, the window is still open for mu if they can move fast. then along comes schlumberger. now how does an oil company get in here? schlumberger has a complete rdram production problem solving package to include (they say) the best rdram tester and a complete rdram production problem solving consulting package. since they get at the most 17 of 19 dram mfrs as customers (remember one got it right and toshiba/sony think they have it right), and since the dram guys can either produce rdram's or go out of business, schlumberger gets to charge millions and millions and millions of dollars in upfront pre-production fees. did you hear that?!! that was the mu ceo putting his fist thru the wall. since i mentioned the sony/toshiba. they just announced a $1 billion rdram production facility. sony needs rdram for playstation, hdtv, computers, dvd, etc. toshiba is the world's largest laptop maker. i just bet in addition to fulfilling their own rdram need, they are allocating some production to outside sales. uh oh, that might cut into mu's sales. mu started late with the rdram ramp up. their competition is working hard to shut them out. mu is getting desperate. end of story? not yet. mu has enormous production capacity and $500 million to switch to rdram. it is hard to spend $500 million quickly, but they must to survive. any delay that they can create in the rdram ramp will work hugely to their benefit. how does this affect us? not at all. rdram is a profitable product to mfr. the demand will be filled by someone. it is very comforting to me to be in the same corner with samsung (the world's largest dram mfr), intc (the world's largest chipset maker), nintendo, sony, toshiba, etc. also comforting to know that rdram can be successfully manufactured in volume. didn't mean for this to get so long, unclewest

To: Shibumi who wrote (17870)	3/27/1999 6:51:00 AM
From: Alan Hume	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi Shibumi, "Mr. Hume in particular tends to posit that he believes that DRAM manufacturers are slow in their progress -- anyone see proof of that?" This statement I made a while back and I still stick to it, although the RDRAM manufacturers themselves have been let off the hook for the time being. 6 months ago INTEL's biggest concern was SUPPLY. Today their major concern is IMPLEMENTATION, which we all know has led to a delay of 3 months or so. I know that there have been many announcements of more RDRAM capacity coming on stream, but note at the INTEL symposium in late Feb' they was announced that the 128Mb configuration is the way INTEL was going. Meaning that the 64/72Mb chips announced by several vendors (NEC I particuarly recall from memory) can be discounted for usage with Camino. From what I read at the moment, with Caminio introduction in Sept/Oct time frame, Samsung at 5kk/m will not be able to handle it alone. Lets build a model: Total box sales in 99 will be 105kk (98 was 90kk + 15% growth) RMBS is projected to take 10% share in 99, but I doubt this and will assume 5% 5% of 105kk = 5,25kk There are 8 chips to the module which makes for 42kk chip To get them on the shelves in 99 these chips need to be manufactured between June and October, say 8kk/m In reality the situation is worse than this as 50% (?) of all boxes are sold in Q4 alone Alan Hume (wehere did the Mr. handle come from?)