To: michael r potter who wrote (2464 ) 3/27/1999 2:01:00 AM From: michael r potter Read Replies (2) | Respond to
Just looked at the 10 year log chart of SFE for perspective. A couple of items popped right out. The break-out in March after a three year consolidation is impressive. A nice clean substantial breakout on huge volume-16 million shares, much higher than any previous month in the move starting in '93 from $3. This is the kind of pattern I've mentioned before that almost always leads to higher prices. It does not say anything about the next two weeks, but it does suggest, the pattern is set for much higher highs. The short term technicals appear mixed, it could certainly pull back further, but considering the move starting from $36 a few weeks ago, that doubled the price, selling is drying up considerably and the stock is still $65. One could also say that buying is drying up since buy=sell, but the fact that it is occurring at this high level seems positive. On the news front, it is hard to see bad news coming that would impact the stock. The sector behind SFE's breakout move [internet of course] show no sign of cooling. Earnings won't be a negative. They can't suspend rights offerings. More likely is positive news such as the filing of ICG, resumption of rights offering, or the addition of another private company. Especially the first two news items will likely send SFE flying again and bring it to the attention of an expanded group of investors [looking for the next hot one in a market where performance is getting harder to find.]. Now one could say that all possible good news was already priced in 10 or 20 points ago, but I still come back to the relative lack of selling now in the mid 60s, and the likely impact of news on the stock price which, though apparently discounted from a fundamental standpoint, is not likely discounted from a psychological standpoint. [it could sell off on good news, but not likely from the $65 level, it would have to be considerably higher]. We will know soon. Always interesting-especially when $ are on the line. Enjoy the weekend. Mike
