To: country bob who wrote (12151 ) 3/27/1999 8:28:00 AM From: stiltz1 Read Replies (3) | Respond to
mornin' country bob: I'll probably re-enter a few weeks before mid may, when ipo fever may hit this disappointing company. Months ago Christian made an observation that this is a one story stock: that was right after the cc; he urged us not to get caught up in fantasies of what the ipo filing might do to its price. I certainy got caught up in the mall/navr parallel, seeing a similar runup; and then thinking that it might be profitable. But this stock never made it high enough, and the pros out there, anthony etc., saw how high it actually would go and made the right call. I fear something like that may happen again -- where investors, speculators/datraders literally have a half hour window to get out in time. Experienced traders can play this stock both ways: the problem here is timing and opportunity costs. Are you going to wait until an ipo will ( or will not) happen? What will be the effect of Kosovo on stock prices in general; will navr be able to withstand the inevitable stock market crash when ground troops are introduced itno the fighting, as they most certainly will. Ask Christian about wars in Europe: what war in Europe has ever been won by the air alone? Strategkic bombing not only in Europe but in Vietnam did little to destory the resolve of , in the case of the former, theGermans and ethnic germans, and in the latter, the viet cong and north vietnemese. In tying money up in navr, we subject ourselves not only to the vicissitudes of the ipo process but to the radical uncertainties that will be unleashed by this war. Anyone old enough on this thread who remembers vietnam, certainly knows what the term escalation means. And what was the history of hte stock market during Vietnam? not good. We are in the most perilous international conditin we have been in since Vietnam. And anyone who thinks this won't affect the market negatively has to be living in a bubble. Headline Washington Post: "US, Allies Weigh Use of Ground Forces: Commanders fear bombing won't stop serb offensive". For awhile the stock market may continue business as usual, but wait till the day after the first american ground troops are introduced. And then wait until the commanders call for more; and then lo and behold, there we are with 100,000 troops in the middle of europe.
