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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken who wrote (5077)	3/27/1999 3:59:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

Ken, I'm not a programmer. My educational background is political/analytical and emphasized political and business risk assessment. That being said, I certainly do not underestimate, nor overestimate, the potential consequences of the issue, as well as the cascading impacts of failures. All of us who watched GM factories essentially cease all operations from the strikes of last summer realize the implications. But I do not believe in that remaining "frozen" in fear of the unknown will help the matter, nor focus our attention on how to circumvent, or fix any problems that are derived from Y2K. Ken, in any disaster recovery plan, the first thing (after basic essentials of security, shelter, and food) that will have to be resolved is power. That dictates if all of our national resources are required, the grid will have priority. Now since the grid essentially existed in its capabilities LONG BEFORE there were computers monitoring and controlling whatever processes that involve embedded systems or date sensitive microchips, that means it can be recreated AT LEAST LOCALLY and in some form of capacity without computers. Even if the authorities have to dictate that all teritary control systems have to be torn out and reinstalled to priority power locations, it will be done. (And I'm not suggesting, NOR HAVE I SEEN ANY DOCUMENTED EVIDENCE that suggests this measure of vulnerabilty for the nationwide grid) Transportation networks will work even if it requires creating the equivalent of the WWII "Red Ball Express" with one line heading solely heading west, and another heading east with centralized distribution points set up along the track for transferring critical material via truck. Some have expressed some concern about digital track switches failing. Well, I would suggest that you tear out the track and even if you have to have a man standing there at major junction points throwing a new manual switch manually, so be it. Fundamentally, there may be substantial systemic risk. But this is an electronic "system" we have created that replaced a past more inefficient manual one. That manual one can be reinstituted (with effort). The US was a great and strong economic power well before the introduction of computerized systems. The fact that the entire globe will face similiar problems, I suggest that, in comparison, the US will not lose its place. Fear is your problem, Ken. You claim you are retired, yet you forget how well this economy functioned before PCs and mainframes, and the Internet were but Sci-Fi visions of a far-away future. The world dealt with severe depression during the '30's. All of Europe dealt with having to completely rebuild their economies and devastated infrastructure without the aid of computers after WWII. Much of the world has LITTLE OR NO RELIANCE on computers even today. Frankly, I'm more worried about the politico-military ramifications of Y2K should it result in a global recession/depression than I am in believing it represents TEOWAWKI. Get a grip, Ken. I can't believe you lived your entire life in fear as you apparently do now. I'm sure there are people in your life looking for your calming leadership to help them deal with whatever results from Y2K. Feeding their worst fears does them and everyone else a disservice. Life will go on. And if it doesn't, most people beleive we're heading for a better place anyway.. Regards, Ron