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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (7313)	3/28/1999 12:03:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Mini-Report: 3/28/99 The PRN Mini- Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are welcome and encouraged. Invest only after conducting your own research. Have PFun! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ PFE Stats (3/26/99): PFE down on expected profit-taking and sector rotation reflecting the uncertainties associated with Friday's Rezulin Advisory Panel PFE Versus the Dow- Intraday quicken.com DOW JONES: Close: 9,822 -14 PFE - PFIZER INC Last Price: 135 at 16:25 Change: Down 2 3/4 (-2.00%) High: 137 3/4 Low: 134 7/8 at 16:18 Open: 137 7/16 Previous Close: 137 3/4 on 3/25 Volume: 2,408,800 30-Day Avg. Volume: 2,490,000 Shares Outstanding: 1,297,794,000 52-Week High: 144 1/2 52-Week Low: 86 Beta: 0.97 Yield: 0.60% P/E Ratio: 52.9 EPS: 2.55 _____________ The Peabody Model -Click here for a summary of the principles behind the Peabody Model. Short-Term PFE Trend: Neutral with a downward bias in the range of 134 to 128. The Peabody Valley strike price of 135 was broken on Friday confirming the Peabody Peak of 144.5 (3/23/99). Target Peabody Valley: The target Peabody Valley remains at 128.27 (-5.0%) to be reached by Thursday, 4/1/99. Target Peabody Peak: If the Model is wrong, the new target Peabody Peak is a record 156.25 (+16.5%) by 4/26/99. The Peabody Peak strike price is $145.67 (+7.9%). Predicted PFE Level: At the current record Dow level of 9,822, the predicted PFE price is 139.34..... Accordingly, PFE is 3.1% underpriced as compared to historical Dow and PFE trends. Da Short-term PForecast (3/28/99) PFE: 135.00, Dow: 9,822: Unless PFE swings up from Monday's opening, a PFE buying opportunity will surface this week....Be very alert, it could come and go within a one hour trading period. If there is a minus 200 Dow day, you can expect the Peabody Portfolio to jump in. The basic PFE PFUNdamentals have never been stronger. In July, you will be wondering why you did not buy PFE at pre-adjusted split levels of 43-45 (129 to 135). Suggested PFE Buying Range: $125 to $135 (3/23/99) The Peabody Portfolio: We almost have a double (+97.7%) The Peabody Portfolio consists of 29 PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996. The Portfolio has purchased 4,500 PFE shares at an average price of $68.29 (only 3.5% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). # PFE purchases since 8/14/96: 29 % of purchases in the black: 100% # PFE shares purchased: 4,500 Average PFE purchase price: $68.29 Annualized return: 81.2% Current return: 97.7% # PFE purchases since 1/01/99: 2 % of purchases in the black: 100% # PFE shares purchased: 200 Average PFE purchase price: $113.63 Annualized return: 91.1% Current return: 18.8% Date............#..........Purchase Purchased...Shares...Price 8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38 10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44 12/4/96:......200..........$41.69 12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50 12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44 12/31/96:....200..........$41.50 1/2/97:........200.........$40.94 1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38 2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69 3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88 3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81 3/31/97:........200..........$42.56 8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13 4/16/98:........200...........$97.00 4/27/98:........200...........$113.00 5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50 5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00 5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75 7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00 7/29/98 :........100 .........$110.50 8/05/98 :........100 .........$104.00 8/07/98 :........100 .........$102.63 8/11/98..........100..........$100.00 9/01/98..........100..........$97.63 10/06/98.........100..........$94.00 10/09/98.........100..........$89.00 10/14/98.........100..........$89.50 01/10/99.........100........$117.00 01/12/99.........100........$110.25 Total:............4,500.........$68.29 ______________________________________________________ Peabody Peaks & Valleys: Updated 3/23/99 Listed below is an updated summary of the Peabody Peaks and Valleys since 1/04/90. The columns include the following data: - PFE prices - % change since the previous Peabody Valley or Peak - # of days from the last Peabody Valley or Peak - # of high volume days associated with the Peabody Valley or Peak - predicted next Peabody Valley or Peak using the Model - difference between the predicted Peabody price and the actual price . ___________________________________________________ ................................................................................ Predicted .........................................% Chg... # Days..High Vol..Peabody....% Diff ...............................PFE.....Last........Last....Days ....Next Pred..Peabody/ Peak/Valley.. Date...Price...Vall/Pk....Val/Pk. W/ Date...Vall/Pk....Actual 1....Peak.....1/4/90....9.06.................................. 2....... 6.92........1.5% 2....Valley...2/26/90...6.81.....-24.8%..... 53........12......11.31.......19.0% 3....Peak.... 7/31/90...9.50......39.4%.....155.......21........7.31....... -8.7% 4....Valley...8/23/90...8.00.....-15.8%..... 23..........1.......12.61 .....-41.3% 5....Peak.....2/30/91..21.50...168.8%... 494 .........9.......18.07...... 4.9% 6....Valley...2/19/92...17.22...-19.9%......51..........8.......22.76...... 19.2% 7....Peak.....2/27/92...19.10....10.9% .......8 .........2.......15.91...... -6.4% 8...Valley....4/28/92...17.00....-11.0%......61.........3.......22.52....... 8.2% 9....Peak.....8/20/92...20.81.....22.4%....114........4........17.45 .......+0.4% 10..Valley...10/5/92....17.38....-16.5%......46.......10.......22.93.......14.7% 11..Peak.....2/14/92 ...20.00.....15.1%......70........3.......16.72........27.4% 12..Valley....2/22/93 ...13.13 ...-34.4%..... 70 .....33.......18.25 ......14.5% 13..Peak.....3/11/93 ...15.94 ....21.4%......17 . .....3.......13.08 .... -8.2% 14..Valley....3/24/93 ...14.25 ...-10.6%......13........1........19.49......3.1% 15..Peak.....6/17/93 ...18.90.....32.6%...... 85.......6.......15.73 .....13.1% 16..Valley...8/16/93 ...13.92 ....-26.4%..... 60.....13.......19.13 .....17.2% 17..Peak.....9/03/93....16.31......17.2%......18.......1.......13.41......-7.1% 18..Valley...10/04/93...14.44 ....-11.5%......31.......1.......19.70 .....11.9% 19..Peak.... 12/30/93...17.60 .....21.9%......87.......0......14.57 .......9.7% 20..Valley....3/31/94....13.29 ....-24.5%......91.......2......18.43......-18.1% 21..Peak......3/29/95....22.50.....69.4%.....363......3......18.96.......-5.8% 22..Valley.....5/15/95....20.13..... -10.6%.....47......5......25.96........0.6% 23..Peak......8/1/95......25.81......28.3%..... 78..... 5......21.93 ......-5.7% 24..Valley....9/8/95.......23.25.....-9.9%....... 38....10.....29.40 .......-12.1% 25..Peak.....12/14/95....33.44.....43.8%.......97......5.....28.77.........-4.9% 26..Valley.....1/19/96.....30.25.....-9.5%.......36....14..... 37.10.........4.9% 27..Peak.......2/13/96.....35.38....16.9%.......25.....4...... 30.50 ........-0.8% 28..Valley.....3/14/96..... 30.75....-13.1%......30.....11.....37.65.........4.0% 29..Peak.......4/3/96 ......36.19....17.7%.......20..... 2......31.23 .......-0.7% 30..Valley......5/8/96......31.44....-13.1%......35......3......38.41........-0.7% 31..Peak.......6/17/96.....38.69....23.1%.......40......3......33.47........2.0% 32..Valley......7/16/96.....32.81....-15.2%.....29......2.......39.92........-7.7% 33..Peak.....10/21/96......43.25...31.8%.......97..... 5.......37.56....... -4.9% 34..Valley....10/28/96.....39.50....-8.7%........7.......5.......47.28 ....... 3.6% 35..Peak.....11/26/96 .....45.63...15.5%......29.......4.......39.69 .......-0.1% 36..Valley....12/6/96 .......39.75...-12.9%.....10.......5.......47.56........-4.6% 37..Peak.......2/18/97......49.88...25.5%......74...... 5.......43.50.........4.8% 38..Valley..... 4/03/97......41.50...-16.8%.....44.....15.......49.48........30.9% 39..Peak.......7/07/97.......64.75.. 56.0%......95 ....18.....55.13 .........-7.4% 40...Valley....8/18/97........51.06...-21.1%.....42 ...11.....66.88.........10.1% 41...Peak....10/24/97.......73.63 ...44.2%......67.....3 ....62.00...........4.8% 42...Valley...10/27/97.......65.00 ...-11.7% .....4.....2.....85.50.........-12.1% 43...Peak....10/30/97.......74.88.....15.2% .....2..... 3.....66.00.........+0.5% 44...Valley...11/13/97.......66.31....-11.3%....14.... 3.....83.00.........-3.6% 45...Peak....12/04/97.......80.00.....20.6%....21.....2......69.13.......+0.6% 46...Valley...12/19/97.......69.56....-13.0%....15.....1......87.13........+9.0% 47...Peak......1/05/98.......79.94.....14.9% ....17....1......69.38 ....... -2.4% 48...Valley... 1/12/98...... 71.06.....-11.1% .... 7....3 .....87.00........ -4.9% 49...Peak..... 2/27/98...... 91.44.......28.7% ...46 ...1 ....79.87 ....... -5.1% 50...Valley....3/06/98.......84.13.........-8.0% .... 7 ...3....103.71.......+0.0% 51....Peak.....4/06/98 ....103.75........23.3%...31...13.....91.86 ........-3.6% 52...Valley.... 4/16/98......95.31........ -8.1%....10 ....1...116.50 ........-4.3% 53...Peak......4/21/98.....121.75.........27.7%.....5 ....8...109.12..........4.5% 54...Valley....5/17/98 .....104.75........-14.0% ...26 ..2....124.00.......+8.6% 55....Peak ....5/20/98 .....114.19.........9.0%......3 ...4 ....101.10.......+0.8% 56 ...Valley.. 6/01/98......100.38........-12.1%....12...5 ....119.75.......+4.2% 57....Peak.... 6/18/98 ....114.94..........14.5%....17...1 ...102.00........-3.4% 58....Valley.. 7/06/98 .....105.63......... -8.1% ...18 ..4.....126.59.......+5.0% 59....Peak ...7/14/98......120.56..........14.1% .....8 ..4....107.00........+9.2% 60... Valley... 8/11/98......98.00.........-18.7%.....28...1.....117.19.......+7.6% 61....Peak...8/19/98.......108.94..........10.6% .....8 ..1.......97.06........+5.5% 62....Valley.. 9/01/98 ..... 92.00......... -15.5% ...13 ..6....109.79.......+7.6% 63....Peak ...9/03/98......102.06..........10.9% ......2....5.....90.32........-3.4% 64... Valley.. 9/04/98......93.50...........-8.4%........1... 5...110.79.......+6.7% 65....Peak.....9/15/98.....103.88........+11.1%.....11...0.... 92.25.......-2.9% 66....Valley....9/21/98......95.00.........-8.5%.........6...0....110.00.....+0.7% 67....Peak.....9/28/98.....109.19........+14.9%...... 7...2......96.93.....+12.7% 68....Valley...10/08/98......86.00........-21.3%.....10...5......101.40.....+4.6% 69....Peak.....10/12/98.... 96.94........+12.7%.......4...0.... 85.30......-3.6% 70....Valley...10/14/98......88.50.........-8.7%........2...2....103.36.......-19.8% 71....Peak....12/31/98 ... 128.94......+45.7%.......78...1.....114.00.......+4.1% 72....Valley...1/12/99......109.56........-15.0%.....12...4.....127.49........-5.3% 73....Peak....2/02/99 ... 134.63.......+22.9%......21...5.....118.66.......-5.1% 74....Valley...2/09/99......125.00........-7.1%.........7.....0....139.84........-3.2% 75....Peak.....3/23/99 ... 144.50.........+15.6%....42....2.....128.27.......-4.9% 76....Valley...3/26/99.....134.88.........-6.7%........3....0 ........Pending ______________________________________________ Average..Peak (1999) N=2..............+19.2%.....32.............3 Average..Peak (1998) N=13............+18.3%.....18 ............3 Average..Peak (1997) N= 5.............+32.3%.....52.............7 Average..Peak (90-99) N=38...........+28.0%.....64 ............4 Average..Valley (1999) N= 3 ........... -9.6%......7 .............1 Average..Valley (1998) N=12 ......... -12.1%.....12 .............3 Average.. Valley (1997) N= 5...........-14.2%.....10 .............2 Average..Valley (90-99) N=38 .........-14.0%.....29 .............6 The Peabody 1999 Archives 3/28/99 PFE@135: " A PFE buying opportunity will surface this week." 3/23/99 PFE@139.25: "PFE will reverse and move lower". www3.techstocks.com 3/16/99 PFE@142.00: "PFE will reverse and move lower". www3.techstocks.com 3/11/99 PFE@140.68: "PFE will reverse and move lower". www3.techstocks.com 3/08/99 PFE@139.56: "PFE will reverse and move lower..long-term PFE is headed to the long-awaited $150 level." www3.techstocks.com 3/07/99 PFE@136.56: "PFE will now battle @140..expect profit-taking at all-time highs and even a possible drop back to the high 120s." www3.techstocks.com 2/28/99 PFE@131.94: "Expect a March trading range of 125 to 142". www3.techstocks.com 2/23/99 PFE@ 133.88: "PFE moving higher to $140". www3.techstocks.com 2/14/99 PFE@130.13: "Short-term trend "Neutral"...PFE could sink to another buying opportunity or jump to an all-time high". www3.techstocks.com 2/09/99 PFE@125.25:" Be very alert for a buying opportunity this week." www3.techstocks.com 2/02/99 PFE@ 132.69: "PFE will reverse and move lower....a final attempt @135 before the Valley ride begins". www3.techstocks.com 1/31/99 PFE@128.88 :" Expect a February trading range of 119 to 135+". (Actual: 125 to 135) www3.techstocks.com 1/28/99 PFE@127.56: "PFE has momentum and will break an all-time high and possibly the 130 level...but profit-taking will begin". www3.techstocks.com 1/27/99 PFE@121.94: "3-4-1 and have PFun!...Thursday is the key day." www3.techstocks.com 1/26/99 PFE@120.13: "PFE moving higher...positive trend will gain momentum." www3.techstocks.com 1/24/99 PFE@115.75: "Near term direction unclear...positive PFE news to be announced" www3.techstocks.com 1/10/99 PFE@122.25: "After 2 months, the Model has reversed and shows a positive upward trend....A PFE split announcement is guaranteed later this month with a 75% probability of a historic 3-1." www3.techstocks.com

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (7313)	3/28/1999 3:22:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9523

Susan Cruzan, spokesperson for the FDA, interviewed on Viagra 3/26/99: "Although the FDA continues to stand behind the safety and effectiveness of Viagra , the agency strengthened warnings on its label in November after 130 men died while taking the drug. The FDA said Viagra wasn't determined to have caused the deaths, but men with heart trouble and other ailments should be careful about popping the pill. As with all drugs, Cruzan said, the FDA continues to monitor Viagra reports. "We updated the labeling in November and since then all issues are the same," she said. "We never established a direct link to Viagra with the reports. We updated the labeling so doctors had all of the information to make informed decisions about using the drug."