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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RMiethe who wrote (5624)	3/27/1999 9:44:00 PM
From: defendall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10852

You bring up a good point I have thought about myself in regards to the I* subscriber rate.Every tech report and study eludes to the fact G* will cost much less both in phone and minute rate.If you were a CEO purchasing in volume would you not wait nine to twelve months for substantial savings? So as individuals hold off from acquiring I* for G* subscriber rates don't rack up and the Street says " no market " for the product. Kind of a Catch-22. Once again it comes down to all the speculation doesn't mean anything. The Street says " show Me " and we're in for a wait.

To: RMiethe who wrote (5624)	3/28/1999 12:42:00 AM
From: Valueman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10852

the shortfall of Loral transponder revenues last year. Seems to me they are attributable to a fairly wide economic collapse in satellite serviced nations beginning in late 1997. The November 1997 projections Valueman mentions could in no way foresee this. I do not think Schwartz can really be held responsible for the numbers being so far off then You are being too kind. Skynet was way off projections, even correcting for delayed launches. The US economy has not even flinched. Orion 1 did not come anywhere close to projections, and Europe has been a stable economy. Asia's collapse, and the cancellations forced on SS/L can be forgiven. C*'s numbers were obviously not in the ballpark. Those were overpromise/underdeliver combos that investors absolutely despise. It's not true that Globalstar did not have a back-up launch plan after the Zenit. Globalstar did not have a launch plan that would be able to anticipate a September 1998 change in US policies on licensing. I would strongly disagree here. The Zenit went down in September. A contingency plan would have had a launch on Soyuz or Delta ready to go within the month. Those rockets were not scheduled, nor were they ready. Nothing was ready. The TSA problem allowed Loral to save face. It gave them the time to draw up the contingency plan and execute it. The blame was put on the TSA troubles, when, in reality, it saved them. Through luck or whatever, it has worked out so far. One can go back to Schwartz's own comments and know without a doubt they were not ready for any disaster--he stated that they could get by fine if the third Zenit crashed, would have a 3 month delay if the second one crashed, and they were hosed if the first one crashed(ok, he probably didn't put it that way, but he might as well have). Other than those points, your post is right on in my book--I definitely agree.