To: coug who wrote (19589 ) 3/28/1999 3:52:00 PM From: nicewatch Respond to
Hi Coug,
thanks for the update... I appreciate your thoughts.
Any slight downward pressure on Monday should do it... This coupled with the uncertainity in the Balkans makes me very skittish..
For the most part, I agree with you. I was excited by the bounce on Thursday because it happen at the confluence of a few forks, both up and down... not to mention I made a great -long- daytrade that day :) Nonetheless, the action on Friday was not encouraging, imo, as the SPX didn't even manage to make a higher high -than Thursday- intraday.
Some of the stuff I look at says if 3/19 wasn't an important turning point.... perhaps 4/9 and 4/12 will be. NO, I did not nail the high of 3/19 <gggg> I was too partial to the april time window, which can be more inclusive than the dates I mentioned, depending on how big a timing window you want. Either scenario seems reasonable to me (must be wrong then <ggg>), namely: we recently had a top on 3/19, and this initial corrective rally will soon fail to the downside... Monday???, Tuesday???, I dunno, but soon probably. Or, we will work our way higher into that april time window. FWIW, a lot of timer gurus are looking at the first two weeks of april for a turn... whatever than means.
I've been trying to update my charts, but my ftp program won't work properly... ack!!!! If worse comes to worse, I will walk over to the computer lab and update them from there, later today. The two things -other than the obvious- worth mentioning are that the MACD (13,34,89) turned negative on Thursday... and Friday -as I'm sure everyone knows- was an inside day. The macd (13,34,89) isn't the greatest, and can whipsaw like anything else... but from a positional standpoint.... it's tough to bet against, imo. As always, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out... talk to you later
Best Regards,
Frank
