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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (53588)	3/28/1999 11:08:00 PM
From: Kevin K. Spurway	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572778

Re: "Maybe you're right about Intel's ability to crush AMD or AMD's own ability to minimize the opportunity. But it sure seems to me that at this juncture, with virtually every institution in the land sitting on tons of INTC and with virtually no institution owning AMD, the probability tree favors an outcome with a higher valuation on the up-and-comer. And I would further hold that the overwhelming percentage of investors who view AMD's record as proof-positive that it will once again fail to attain respectable performance is an indication that the outcome is more likely to surprise on the upside than the downside. "The contention that the second largest producer of the most important product since penicillin has no investment value at any price is the dumbest thing I've heard in over twenty years as an investment analyst. It sure smacks of opportunity." Exactly. But at least guys like Engel understand the potential threat to Intel, especially that AMD will be into the higher-end x86 workstation and server markets in short order. I don't think some of these other guys get it. Even if AMD's chances of pulling it off are 2%, the potential repercussions for the industry are enormous. Kevin

To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (53588)	3/29/1999 12:51:00 AM
From: Joey Smith	Respond to of 1572778

re:If, as you report, the K-6-2 400Mhz part is in "free fall", there would probably be three possible reasons: 1) It's a dog product that no one really wanted, but was buying only because it was the only game in town and now some reasonable alternatives from other vendors have reduced demand; or 2) the vendor has started flooding the market with additional supply; or 3) demand for MPUs in general has shifted to a lower growth rate and has adversely skewed the pricing for this particular part. Ted, it's pretty simple. Intel has lowered its Celeron 400 pricing to under $120 (on pricewatch), and AMD HAS to follow suit. Why would anyone pay more for k6-2 400 than Celeron 400 (a better performing chip)? AMD K6 offers no value-add, except for price. We can argue about the effects of price cutting on Intel. However, the effects of the price cutting on AMD is clear: DEVASTATING!!! joey

To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (53588)	3/29/1999 1:25:00 AM
From: Gary Ng	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572778

A.A. LaFountain III, Re: And I would further hold that the overwhelming percentage of investors who view AMD's record as proof-positive that it will once again fail to attain respectable performance is an indication that the outcome is more likely to surprise on the upside than the downside. I found this view very interesting. Does it mean that when everybody on the street take the view that I can't finish 100M in 13 seconds(which I never did) an indication that I am going to break it next time I run ? Gary

To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (53588)	3/29/1999 8:25:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572778

Tad - Re: " 2) the vendor has started flooding the market with additional supply; or " Possibly - for a reason - AMD said 400 MHz Kmart 62's wouldn't ramp up until late in Q1, so the ramp is just beginning. Now, the likely scenario is that IBM and Compaq have been receiving LOW QUOTAS of these chips, and have adjusted their manufacturing accordingly. The "sudden" spurt in availablity then means that AMD has no customers for $150 Kmart 62's at 400 MHz so they drop the price almost daily until some customers show up. Not a good business plan. Paul

To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (53588)	3/29/1999 8:28:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 1572778

Tad - Re: " the investment question is not about products per se, it's about the two companies ability to generate profits from these trends" Yep. And AMD has already told us about their ability - in three words - "SIGNIFICANT LOSSES AHEAD". Paul

To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (53588)	3/29/1999 8:30:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 1572778

Tad - Re: " with virtually no institution owning AMD, the probability tree favors an outcome with a higher valuation on the up-and-comer. " AMD's <SIGNIFICANT LOSSES AHEAD makes them a DOWN-and-OUTER , not an up-and-comer. Paul

To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (53588)	3/29/1999 8:32:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572778

Tad - Re: "The contention that the second largest producer of the most important product since penicillin has no investment value at any price is the dumbest thing I've heard in over twenty years as an investment analyst. It sure smacks of opportunity. - " You've been beating AMD's drum since it was what $27+? Have you exercised your opportunity ? Or do you continue to make your money by peddling your advice, instead of following your own advice? Paul

To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (53588)	3/29/1999 9:14:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 1572778

Tad & AMD Investors - Re: "K-6-400 pricing free fall " The 400 MHz Kmart 62 pricing free fall IS ACCELERATING ! On Sunday, the drop from $129 to $121 was crazy, buy TODAY, Pricewatch is reporting 400 MHz K62's at $110, another $11 drop in just a day ! This is getting SERIOUS ! Any deep thoughts, Tad? Paul