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Technology Stocks : Internet Analysis - Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: puborectalis who wrote (256)3/29/1999 10:33:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 419
 
Stephen I don't view this as good news. I view this as more baseless hype. I have analyzed the analyses of several analysts, and I am frankly appalled at the shallowness of their work. The basis for earnings forecasts is not stated, and in the few cases given, the valuation models are simplistic (and I'm being kind in that characterization).

The statistical analysis I have done on historic expenses indicates that all of the cash expenses behave as if they are variable. If this is true the implications are quite bad for the company, because it means that no matter how much the company grows it will experience losses given the current business model. You cannot grow yourself out of this malaise. When the total of the variable costs are running over 110% of sales there is something very wrong with the business model. Perhaps the company will dilute itself out of the problem by buying other losing companies with its inflated stock as currency, thereby diluting the loss per share.

I don't know why this stock has been hyped so much. I get the feeling that the sell-side analysts like travel in herds. That way, if they are wrong, they are all wrong. I guess there is safety in numbers.

TTFN,
CTC