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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ditchdigger who wrote (41209)	3/30/1999 7:45:00 AM
From: Captain James T. Kirk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

From Briefing.com (scroll down): Updated 30-Mar-99 Brief Thoughts Dow 10,000 Aside from making a catchy story for the media, the DJIA's first-ever close above 10,000 yesterday means little. Traders just don't care much. Yes, it's a nice big round number. And yes the speed in which the Dow rallied through 10,000 is amazing. But now that that little piece of history is over, marketplace can again focus on market fundamentals, and here the story is decidedly mixed. On the one hand we still have low inflation, low interest rates, sizable inflows and modest earnings growth. These forces, combined with bullish momentum suggests that the market will remain a rock upon which fortunes can be built. On the other hand, market capitalization as a percentage of GDP is approaching 160%, its highest level in history. Earnings are growing at a low- to mid single digit pace. In addition, breadth stats continue to deteriorate. Last week, the daily advance/decline line established a new low while the indices hovered within a few percentage points of their highs. Then yesterday, the DJIA soars to a new record on lighter than average volume. What had come easily to the market over the past few years (going up), is becoming increasingly difficult. In sports, one of the ways to measure a true champion is his/her ability to stay on top despite the years. Ali, Ripken Jr., Moon, Shoemaker, Ryan, all come to mind. But eventually time takes its toll and even the best begin to struggle to maintain their game. Ultimately, time passes them by. Maybe the same can be said about the market. It has been an incredible ride, and by nearly any account the current bull market has to be considered the champion of all champions. Nevertheless, this market shows signs of being tired. We're not saying its over just yet, but the bull market's glory days are behind it. Fed Policy This won't take long. Fed will do what everyone expects and keep policy on hold. No reason not to as world financial markets have stabilized and domestic scene of strong growth/low inflation is about perfect. Since no action is anticipated, Briefing.com doesn't expect the decision to alter the course of the market. Friday's Jobs Report Staying with matters economic, jobs report due out on Friday. Report will generate less than usual excitement for one big reason - the markets are closed in observance of Good Friday. But even if the markets were open, we seriously doubt the report would have generated much of an impact on stocks. Though Briefing.com is forecasting a relatively weak jump in nonfarm payrolls of 138k, the underlying trend over the past few months has been strong and the drop off in March could easily be explained away as temporary. On top of that, weak number would ease market fears of a runaway economy that would ultimately force the Fed to tighten. As long as the number doesn't end up being so low as to heighten fears of an earnings slowdown, the data should prove a non-event. Oil Patch For a change, everything seems to be going right for this badly beaten down sector. OPEC announced production cuts, and is expected to abide by them. Asian economies recovering faster than expected, raising hopes that demand from the region will pick up. US economic growth has outpaced even the most optimistic forecasts resulting in lower than expected inventories. As a result of these factors, crude is at its highest level in months and the investment community is gushing over the sector once again, upping ratings and earnings estimates for the first time in quarters. To top it all off merger activity is heating up again. No guarantees that OPEC will live up to its production cuts or that Asian economies won't falter once again, but barring such shocks crude prices likely to stay above $13 bbl. And that is good news for the sector. Content provided by Briefing.com, a product of Charter Media. Copyright © 1999 Charter Media, Inc. All rights reserved.

To: Ditchdigger who wrote (41209)	3/30/1999 9:38:00 AM
From: JungleInvestor	Respond to of 95453

Don't know about TA on FLC, but from a gut feel: 1) FLC is a laggard here based on its prior highs last Fall ($16+) 2) Higher oil price and finalized billion dollar financing make FLC much less risky than just several weeks ago. FLC was hammered because of this high risk. 3) FLC is very liquid which will draw institutional investors as they rotate into the Oil Patch (loved those 6+ million shares traded last two days). 4) High debt and higher oil prices will leverage future earnings way beyond low debt drillers such as SDC. Stock market is forward looking - at least 6 months into future. 5) FLC rapid rise may be drawing in the momentum investors. On SI FLC thread poster said he was almost always short stocks, but he liked FLC's chart patterns so much that he is long. (FLC.com anyone?) As you can tell, I like FLC a little (2/3 of my portfolio).