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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BomboochaBoy who wrote (2426)	3/31/1999 12:05:00 AM
From: Stewart Elliot	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7772

EBAY's incredible run may be finally reversing. AMZN is entering the market at a time when online auction market is taking a pause. Both EBAY and YHOO's auction counts have remained flat over the last 3-4 weeks. This may not seem significant, but consider that if EBAY does not continually produce 50+% quarter to quarter sequential growth, the stock will tank. AMZN is likely to compound this problem by attracting many of EBAY's potential customers who will test the new auction house. So, what's next? A massive increase in the public float, and uncertainty by the major investors and institutions who are undoubtedly tracking the auction count as closely as the rest of the people on this board. Not a good combo. EBAY originally surprised me with the huge weekly auction count increases early in the quarter. I covered my short, and actually looked to go long (unfortunately, EBAY never quite made it as low as my price target). But looking at the situation now, EBAY may finally be a good short. In the near term, there might be a run-up right before the earnings announcement because 1Q is likely to be a blow-out quarter, but this may already be reflected in the stock price - the news is out. There's also going to be a fair amount of hype to keep the stock up to support the secondary offering, but I think we can count on a continued weakening in the stock price unless EBAY figures out how to restart the auction count growth.