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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (9589)	3/31/1999 5:25:00 PM
From: J. P.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Don, what is your opinion on this: Re: Nasdaq If you look back on the nasdaq since 1995, the cycle is always off the 200 day moving average. 6 times in a row, the Nasdaq has cyclically bounced off it's highs back to the 200 day moving average, before moving up to new highs. finance.yahoo.com^IXIC&d=5ym We are now sitting near the Nasdaq high, approximatly 500 points above the 200 day moving average, and moving into the traditionally weakest quarters for technology stocks. Why should this cycle be any different from the last 6 cycles? If we hold true to past form, the Nasdaq Composite should correct down to around 2000 or so.

To: donald sew who wrote (9589)	4/1/1999 12:22:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 99985

Hi don .. Just got back home and am starting to get caught up with my reading .. gotta get out my chart also .. The last time that you got your class 1 sell the markets started selling right away also .. then they moved way up on what would have been day two to get what you called a technical .. something .. (I think of it as an extension) which triggered another class 1 sell. I was waiting to see if today would also produce such a move. It didn't. So then, what we got now seems to be somewhat compressed. Almost a full day one with almost a full day two and already starting day three. Since this is a sell cycle then that would seem to imply that there is strength in the market and the selling would not last as long and not be as intense as regular sell cycles. Given all of the other technicals I think unlikely. So what else might be taking place? The impression that I currently have is that this cycle has been streached out. Which to me would be two days of selling one day flat then another two days of selling. That would take into account your target date (which is now the second selling day) for the expected sell day one (today). Then tomorrow would be somewhat flat to slightly up and the first two days of next week very nasty sell days. In support of a flat day tomorrow would be the tendency of traders not likeing to hold over long weekends. The trader activity for the last two days was to get short .. therefor these people would have a natural desire to cover shorts for the weekend .. There's other stuff that I could submit for consideration .. like how is it that day one is -93 and day two -127? Perhaps the logic took a curve <g> If so then day three would have to be something like -550 to -700. Guess it's possible .. then again maybe the days have been compressed. Anyway .. if tomorrow winds up kinda flat then fasten your seatbelts. When this ride heads down we should be in negative g force area. In that case day three should be extended as was one (just to keep the balance, of course). Gersh BTW .. are we playing with e-waves? These three day cycles seem to fit what they call an ABC move.