Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : PSFT - 1999: The "Make-It-or-Break-It" Year? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (401)	4/1/1999 9:11:00 AM
From: Freeflight	Respond to of 1274

www.biztone.com is the new type of erp method delivery

To: Elmer who wrote (401)	4/1/1999 9:17:00 AM
From: Freeflight	Respond to of 1274

david, DELL and the server firms are getting less revenue mix from new server dependent ERP projects but they are more than making it up on back up server farms revenue mix for existing ERP solutions in place for the enterprise and a little telco. disk farm ERP back up is even making more...look at EMC for instance. CSCO makes it up on e-commerce sites and access infrustructure buildout unrelated to mainline erp trends. this is why you don't see them getting hurt from delayed incremental new ERP projects...just ask the system integrators.

To: Elmer who wrote (401)	4/1/1999 9:59:00 AM
From: Tom Smith	Respond to of 1274

David & all, A couple of thoughts -- (1) Re: Dell and Cisco. I believe these companies will see a Y2K slowdown later this year, but it will probably be limited to Q4. The sales and deployment cycle for PC's and routers is a matter of days or weeks, while the cycle for ERP systems is measured in months or years. (2) Did anybody on this thread follow the mid-cap networking stocks (ASND, FORE, NN, etc.) back in late 1997 and early 1998? It was a painful period for these companies and I recall ASND dropping from about $80 to a low of about $22. I bought ASND at $34, rode it down to $22, and held on to sell at about $45 after a year. I mention this because every day now I seem to hear the current PSFT situation described in the very same language that was used to describe ASND back then. e.g., the market is saturated, the competition is fierce, the company is selling "yesterday's products" and needs "new growth opportunities", the management is incompetent and/or dishonest, the insiders are dumping the stock, the employees are deserting, the only hope is a takeover, etc, etc. Despite all the doom and gloom, ASND management stuck to its game plan and waited for the networking equipment market to reinvigorate itself. They rejected multiple takeover offers in the $30-$40 range. Result? LU is buying them for about $90/share. Here is the 2 year chart: techstocks.com Since I believe that the current PSFT situation is primarily a Y2K issue, I am expecting/hoping for an ASND-type recovery, starting in late 1999 or early 2000. Gotta be patient and have fortitude in the meantime. Tom