To: DaveMG who wrote (25750 ) 4/1/1999 3:56:00 PM From: DaveMG Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
Random thoughts... Any meaningful backpeddling on the part of China would kill this rally in a hurry ... On the subject of ATT and TDMA it's important to consider that they have this one stop shopping thing they're pushing, so they might not care about running a money losing wireless operation if the pricing pressure gets severe as long as it helps them lock in customers. The BTAB report has some good news and some bad news in it.. ASICs revs are up almost 50% over Q1 which must be the source of the "business is very robust" comments made by Dr J. Certainly can't complain about that, although I was somewhat surprised to learn how few people are employed on ASICs and yet this is the largest pure CDMA ASIC division in the world. We can be sure the others are doing their best to catch up. Also thought the comments re relationship btween infrastructure ASICs and MSMs might explain why Q felt they could afford to get rid of infrastructure without serious degradation of their ability to innovate. How big an infrastructure operation does one need to perform meaningful trials? Phone revs are DOWN , and even if Q moves to a million a month this is a rather small number in comparison to Nokias million per week. Nokia is increasingly looking like the INTC of phone manufacturing,and the trouble Q is having in ramping production effectively puts Nokias incredible performance this past year into some pespective IMO. Q will have to choose soon whether or not to up the ante or step aside..Also the lack of "Q Phone" production might corroborate Teros "word" that Q is getting out of the "high end" with the exception of pdQ.. The royalty story certainly seems to confirm what we thought all along, that ERICY had virtually no essential patents on IS95, and that even for WCDMA Q is holding the cards and therefore retains significant leverage in the standards negotiations. Just because Dr J has stepped aside for the moment doesn't mean he doesn't have to sign off on the "the standard". Despite what others have said, especially Clarke..:-), I'm increasingly hopeful that this sale of infrastructure to the EVIL Empire is going to turn out to be the beginning of a fruitful relationship wherein Q designs and provides chips and Ericsson sells the stuff. Nokia and Mot are probably far ahead of Ericy in their ability to stand on their own with IS95 ASICS, and such a relationship would obviously jumpstart Ericssons biz. Hopefully, such a relationship will also lead to greater convergence of future standards.. Dizzy Daveā¦..feeling the incredible lightness of being...:-)