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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. John M. de Castro who wrote (123)	4/2/1999 6:57:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

<This really didn't surprise me much. But, it was nice to get an empirical measure of my suspicions that analysts recommendations are next to useless.> Absolutely, very informative! Thank you... DAK

To: Dr. John M. de Castro who wrote (123)	4/5/1999 6:07:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52153

Comp # Sh(mil) $(mil) $/shr Price Cap(mil) %$/Val 98'Exp* Revs* Burn Sales Sls/Exp Insidr OSIP 21.4 $22 1.04 5 $107 21% 31.0 19.5 52% 0 0.1 BTRN 8.6 $20 2.33 2.125 $18 110% 17.2 8.0 46% 0 0 CEPH 28.7 $60 2.09 9.75 $280 21% 74.6 15.6 98% 21 28% 0 CORR 24.4 $50 2.05 10.5 $256 20% 73.2 41.9 63% 20 27% 5 TTP 13.1 $10 0.76 3.5 $46 22% 11.5 0.0 115% 0 0.2 MLNM 34.2 $150 4.38 32 $1,095 14% 139.0 133.7 4% ? 0 INCY 29.3 $110 3.75 19 $557 20% 133.0 134.8 -2% 170 128% 0 MBIO 19.6 $57 2.91 4 $78 73% 18.7 8.1 19% 0 0 AXPH 30.0 $72 2.40 4 $120 60% 78.6 47.4 43% 0 0.36 SIBI 9.5 $12 1.31 5 $48 26% 25.5 7.0 149% 0 2.14 ONXX 11.4 $20 1.75 5.75 $66 30% 30.6 11.3 97% 0 0.04 LGND 35.0 $50 1.43 9 $315 16% 87.0 17.6 139% ? 0 GLFD 19.6 $120 6.14 11 $215 56% 50.3 12.5 32% 6.6 13% 0.5 GLIA 10.1 $27 2.62 22 $223 12% 22.0 17.3 18% 30 136% 0 NPSP 12.5 $40 3.20 7.5 $94 43% 23.4 3.6 50% 7.5 CTII 18.4 $12 0.65 1.25 $23 52% 22.3 8.8 112% 0 0.15 CELG 16.4 $18 1.06 16.5 $271 6% 28.0 3.8 138% ? 0.08 PARS 37.0 $2 0.06 1.5 $56 4% 6.1 1.5 200% 1.2 20% 0.06 ALKS 24.9 $171 6.87 29 $722 24% 45.9 40.0 3% 0 MEDX 31.3 $30 0.96 3.125 $98 31% 29.2 6.7 75% 0 GELX 16.0 $110 6.87 14 $224 49% 41.1 32.7 8% 0 PGNS 17.2 $65 3.79 13.5 $232 28% 62.6 61.1 2% 4.2 CGPI 8.6 $10 1.17 8.5 $73 14% 16.0 3.0 130% 0.28 NBIX 18.8 $59 3.14 5 $94 63% 28.5 16.0 21% 0 0.1 PCOP 20.2 $52 2.57 7.5 $152 34% 105.7 92.2 26% 0 PDLI 18.6 $140 7.53 16.5 $307 46% 40.0 30.0 7% 0.5 VRTX 25.3 $245 9.67 24 $608 40% 77.5 44.5 13% 0 CLTR 17.3 $130 7.52 20 $346 38% 40.0 34.0 5% 0.48 ABGX 14.1 $55 3.90 15 $212 26% 21.0 3.8 31% 0 SNAP 10.7 $28 2.64 6.75 $72 39% 15.5 10.0 20% 0 1.6 MOGN 15.0 $17 1.13 8.5 $128 13% 15.1 17.6 -15% 13 86% 0 SUPG 20.4 $13 0.62 10.5 $214 6% 19.5 3.0 130% 0.3 AVIR 15.7 $80 5.10 19.5 $306 26% 56.6 1.0 70% 0 PCYC 12.3 $45 3.66 17 $209 22% 16.0 0.0 36% 0 LKST 11.90 $27 2.23 8 $95 28% 21.0 9.0 45% 0.6 REGN 31.00 $113 3.65 6.5 $202 56% 14.0 9.0 4% 0.6 *Revs & Exp in Millions ALKS 9 month data,SIBI lawsuit not included,LGND warrants not included. CEPH recent financing not included. Insider is $val in millions purchased by ANY filer in the past year @ mkt prices Sales is MY estimates for '99…. Feel free to "chip in" Please! Sls/Exp is my lame attempt to compare "sustainable" revenues to expenses... then we can get proper "Burn". Burn is just (Exp-Revs)/$.