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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jing Qian who wrote (2463)	4/3/1999 5:58:00 PM
From: Doug Fowler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

There has been some debate about the auction count growth versus traffic growth. Some reports indicate that traffic growth has lagged significantly behind auction count growth. I am a believer that these things balance themselves over time, as sellers will cut back on selling when the bidding is not there to support it, and buyers will up the bidding when great deals are to be had. In a balanced auction system, the buyers will pay an amount with which the seller is satisfied, and both the buyers and the sellers are happy campers. I suspect that this is exactly what is going on with eBay right now. Auction counts are not increasing because many items are going unsold, or are selling at prices below what the seller really wants. I thought eBay's auction count did well holding up the past week in the face of the big introduction of Amazon auctions. I think auctions counts for the next month will be very telling in determining eBay's growth rate for the next quarter. Just as important, however, will be the number of auctions running on Amazon within a month. Since Amazon doesn't yet report its auction count totals, I am keeping an eye on several categories to see what kind of growth they experience.