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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary E who wrote (20115)	4/4/1999 11:39:00 AM
From: coug	Respond to of 44573

Hal, From my experience pure TA only works during market hours (whatever the market you are trading)..In regards to the S&P, which used to be from 9:30-4:00 EST (globex sessions are changing that now though, because they reflect world wide market and fundamental conditions.. They are starting to act as a "transition" from overseas to our own and therefore making markets truly global. Anyway, I wait for least 30 mins to start to see how the markets "digest" any news.. IMO most reactions to major news events is overdone on a short term basis but is right in the longer term..ie.AG's unexpected rate decrease last fall.. TA can't IMO foretell this. Once a person gets an idea which way the wind is blowing, the favorite, standard TA indicators that person uses will kick into gear and start to be useful for direction.. But even, these can be thrown for a loop, like again last fall when AG lowered rates unexpectably.. Thats also why a lot of traders get flat ahead of announcements where the outcome is unknown... Thats why I don't buy into "optimizing through backtesting" when it relates to pure performance or "hard numbers" of a system, ie.wins/losses, net gains,drawdowns, etc.. these can be optimized after the fact to take into account the "unexpected news events" but will not work going forward. I only backtest with "loose optimization" to get general ideas what "Intraday patterns of indicators" look like.. Good luck in your new trading endeavor.. Coug

To: Gary E who wrote (20115)	4/4/1999 12:19:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

I could check the data, if I had the exact dates, to see the market reaction. But I think it was an explosive upward move at the beginning of the invasion. The two scenarios are somewhat different though. The market was down going into that conflict, I believe that it was a larger scale effort, the US population was more behind that conflict, and so on. I believe the Mass Opinion is that the market goes up during a conflict but I would not bet on it based on Mass Opinion. OT On golf, my group has the nickname "Dawn Patrol". We always get preferred times because we get there early and we play very quickly. Most don't want to be in front of us...the pressure is on them to move it along. (Once, a foursome of doctors who said they had afternoon appointments were sent out in front of our first group. I was in our second group and actually saw the doctors running to the 7th hole to stay ahead...funny as hell.) We all take caddies, the other groups usually have carts. So perhaps we are just used to moving quickly, being ready to hit, and having a caddie find the ball expeditiously as well as the small stuff that takes a few minutes like raking traps and so forth. It started years ago when most of us had young children and had to rush home; now it's just habit that we get there early and play in the first groups. Generally I sleep in shifts, a couple of hours in the evening, then a couple of hours between around 4 and 6 AM. In this fashion I can spend the early morning updating data for Nets, planning out the next day, stuff like that. Hope your son made out alright. What type of plane did he fly?