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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (20122)4/4/1999 4:27:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin  Respond to of 44573
 
The Blank Posts are never an issue for me, I was just joking with Scott about them.

As for the activity in options, that shows itself rather quickly. Generally though, that's a short term indicator. But however one feels about it, it plays out fast. Like, if you were looking at a quick twitch on Options the market motions that way in 3 days give or take. If you are looking at overall they it becomes a trend and you miss the Short term moves but get the overall trend. It' really hard to discuss on SI and even harder in the time allotted as I have to run out to Holiday dinner.

< I think forks etc can often signal news believe it or not.>

Nott an argument there. The premise was that TA methods in general throw out news events as non-important. Whatever Forks do, the Pattern analysis still suggest a Short at 10 or thereabouts with a Long around 10:30 or as late as 11.

The motion of the market could be 10 points or a thousand points. If the read is correct, it is still a Sell at 10 and a Buy 30 minutes to a half hour later.

However the Fork or whatever method wishes to calculate it, it still matters not whether there was a war or not. Patterns work the same whether they be Forks, Candles, P&F or Elliot Wave. The moves are just more extreme when outside News comes into play.

I'm sure you know and accept this, I just wish to point out that such a phenomenon is not unexplained in any variant of analysis.

Gotta bolt, Happy Holidays.