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Technology Stocks : PSFT - 1999: The "Make-It-or-Break-It" Year? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David W. Ricker who wrote (429)	4/5/1999 6:35:00 PM
From: gc	Respond to of 1274

I agree with you. psft will be back, but not before it reaches single digits and not before mid-y2k.

To: David W. Ricker who wrote (429)	4/5/1999 6:42:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1274

also think Michelle is quite correct in saying that the internet pyramid is drawing from other good stocks, I would add it is also warping investors sense of what constitutes a good investment. There's a great big sucking sound as money is pulled from sound values and heads for the internets, no doubt. We do agree here. I just feel that the biggest values are even farther away from the internets than ERP is. Like tobacco, ag equips, ECMs, cyclical minerals, golf, heavy industry, REITs, oil, latin america, etc. If you think ERP is being ignored, take a look outside the tech circle and it is ridiculous. I'd be LBO'ing my butt off if I had the capital. I'm looking for the single digits in PSFT as well as JDEC. Also looking/hoping for the mid-high teens in Oracle (which is only 25% ERP but 100% infrastructure) and SAP. Mike

To: David W. Ricker who wrote (429)	4/5/1999 7:37:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1274

David, I tend to agree with you. I don't think the world has come to an end, but what I do see is a convergence of two forces. First, there were a lot of sales for ERP software in anticipation of Y2K problems which provided an artificial boost. But companies who have not completed remediation by changing software are now involved in the tedious task of recoding and fixing things on a patchwork basis. This will probably end during the second quarter of 2000, so we will probably have a rough year going forward. I do think you are making the mistake of confusing stock price with business performance. In my entire investing life I have never seen a market as myopic as this one. Michelle and others have warned that there would likely be a Y2K lockdown. Indeed, many analysts have said the same thing. So why has the reality come as such a shock to the market? My guess is that thinking is so short term because the market, particularly with respect to the e-tailers, is looking more and more like a bubble, and many investors are simply fearful of adopting a longer-term view. On the other hand, I too am fearful of putting money back into this company, but my fear is based more on what I believe to be management's dishonesty. I expected more from them. TTFN, CTC