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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Compadre who wrote (9894)	4/5/1999 8:30:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

jaime choy: I know you pointed no one out with you post. Allow me to just say, not all that believe the Market internals stink, expected the Market to tank back in Feb & March. I had bullish formations on my charts and stuck by them. I stated back in late December that the Market would take six to eight weeks to reveal a topping process. I believe that process began to reveal itself at the end of that eight-week period which was at the end of Feb. I have some bearish formations of which one resolved and one has been negated. The signals are often mixed at major market moves and major market turns. I have been seeing a lot of post with the following what the market is telling us, let me tell any and all that have been using this in their post as of late.... The Market reveals nothing, you have to research, analyze and give it your best-shot, period. There is no one soothe sayer that has a lock on the ability to see the "simple" signs that so many of us just can't seem to see. The truth is there are several on this thread that have remarked about the impending decline and have remarked about the non rally supporting internals, but have also called the rallies along with the dips. This thread has a very good mix of opinions. The reason the slant is bearish should take no soothe sayer to understand. The Market is in a bubble and has been for a very long time. That does not mean it can not go up more, but it should dictate to all that they should not speculate with the retirement funds, the kids college money or the down payment for the house money. Folks, if you must bet on another rocket boost to new highs for this Market use your speculation money until a clear trend is established. There is nothing wrong with being in cash during uncertain times in the Market....nothing! The old prospectors knew...when the grubstake ran out...the search was over! Protect your stash...nothing wrong with leaving a few bucks on the table. If the Market is truly off to another bull leg, there will be time to get on board at the first stop. CAUTION IS BETTER FIRST....THAN TEARS LATER! BWDIK Regards, LG

To: Compadre who wrote (9894)	4/5/1999 8:51:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Jaime, >>>> For instance, I have been reading the posts of the bears in this thread, and for more than 2 months now, (may be longer) they have been saying that the top was coming because of the bad breath. Let me just point out one thing: The NDX gained approximately 220 points since the point that most of us thought it was going to break down in march. 11 % in a month is not too shabby and I would not look down on it. <<<<< Im not taking offense, but I would like to correct you since you said that the bears in this thread, which implies all the bears. I had never said that the DOW could not go up to 10,000, nor did I say there was going to be a big pullback in MAR. I have stated for over a month that the top would probably arrive at the end of MAR/early APRIL, and that the 9-month cycle top would be around APRIL 8. There are bulls who are calling for 50,000 and there are bulls who are cautious. There are bears calling for 4000 and there are bears calling for some sort of pullback. Some of us bears have been able to call the long and short side timely and some bulls have been able also. As for the NAZ moving so much, I concentrate on the DOW since I only have been playing DOW stocks recently to the downside, and successful at it. Some trade stock, some trade futures, some trade options - categorizing the bears or the bears categorizing bulls may not be an accurate measure, since we all have different degrees and styles of trading. Seeya

To: Compadre who wrote (9894)	4/5/1999 9:18:00 PM
From: Casaubon	Respond to of 99985

I have been out of this market since 01/04/99, with my 401K money, because it is difficult to assess where those mutual funds will go in a choppy market. I think this was a pretty good call, since all but one fund are losing money (and I'm sure I would not have put my money on the foreign fund). The map is not the road; thus indexes can be very misleading. The DJIA is not pulling the market with it, it is instead a proxy for "safer" investments. The Nasdaq is climbing because...well just because. No really...it's just people gambling, not investing. It's going to get smoked. Now, having said that, I use my risk capital (which amounts to about 40% of my investment money. Everything not in my 401K), to stay long, mostly in a single risky stock, in which I place a lot of faith. This market is very shaky, and I will jump ship very fast, in the event of any single magor down day (about 300 points or so). So, you're correct, 11% in a month is not shabby, but most people aren't making that even if they are invested long. You've got to pick the right shell.