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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting stocks: Broken stocks - Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (2156)	4/6/1999 2:51:00 PM
From: Vol	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2506

Here are results of 6 other recent low RS / neg cashflow screens. These aren't very pretty. October and November were really bad times to short microcap stocks, because Oct. 6 was a market bottom after a nasty correction. screen date performance to date (negative is good for shorts) 3/15 -6% 2/12 -12% 1/4 +2% Dec. 98 +15% 11/4/98 +76% 10/7/98 +58% As I've noted before, this screen can work well, but it works terribly for shorting a stock into a market recovery. And that's what happened to the Oct. and Nov. screens. One thing I hope to do with QI is to find the best market conditions for using a short screen. Maybe have a floating percentage of your portfolio in shorts is a good idea. Say, for example, if the market is up for the last one month, 3 mo's , 6 mo's, and year use the high percentage. If the last 1-3 mo's are negative, vary the percentage accordingly. Just an example: Market performance shorting last 3 months percentage -20% 0% -10% 10% 0% 20% 10% 30% 20% 40% 30% 50% Just throwing out numbers. Maybe an exponential, rather than a linear relationship would be better. Boy, I hope I can do this with QI. Vol