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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (1133)	4/6/1999 12:03:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

To Uncle Frank: Thanks. Very very much appreciate your willingness to forgive my past sins. And comments on MSFT or INTC are past, gone, finished. As you know, I agree Cisco is the gorilla. No question IMO. Meets all the tests I know about. Super hold since 1990. Prob is taxes. :-) Think though that NT and LU are royalty candidates. Not sure either will become a full fledged king but princes, yes now. The funny thing is that I think the Street and most observers have the relationship between LU and NT backward. NT has much more forward looking management. The Bay merger is going beautifully. Lots of talent staying in key positions. NT was smart and put dynamic Bay leaders and engineers in charge of the networking element of NT's business. Amazingly good judgement and surpirsing ego repression on old line NTers part. Only NT has data moving on electric wires now - in Europe but will spread where transformers permit (not US). NT much better R&D than Bell Labs. Seems like heresy, but as you know heresy is my bag. Just kidding (I hope) :-) Enough. Thanks again for the graciousness and acceptance. Chaz too Disclosure: I hold Cisco of course. My most successful single investment. Consider NT and LU good base holding in any telecom equip portfolio since both do just about everything - wire, wireless, networking, and on and on. But royalty only - don't expect either to become a gorilla.. Expect will fight it out for years. But both are likely to do well - tho not flyers like the Q.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (1133)	4/6/1999 1:33:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Is it OK to put a post like this on this thread? DaveMG is one of best on Q thread - this from Nokia thread. Key discussion on CDMA (and therefore the Q) China footprint: Talk : Communications : Nokia To: tero kuittinen (1719 ) From: DaveMG Tuesday, Apr 6 1999 1:17PM ET Reply # of 1721 In my opinion 90% market share for GSM by 2005 is a total victory. Who would argue with that? Of course 90% is total victory. What's important about 99, from the CDMA POV of course, is whether or not there will be a meaningful national footprint in China or not, and whether the government will seriously commit themselves to it..I think by the end of 99 we'll know the answer to at least part of that question. If it doesn't happen then CDMAone will have lost China, case closed to use your words. I'll predict that we won't "lose" China and by that I mean there will be a LARGE IS95 network which will allow seamless roaming between China, Japan, and Korea. My prediction is based upon the more than persuasive evidence that GSM is a legacy, no longer state of the art, air interface. We are not talking about Apple/MSFT. At issue is the efficient use of spectrum, a finite resource. That the existence of this network in Japan will force NTT to build a more IS95/CDMA2000 compatible network than you think is going to happen. And that as a result WCDMA will not end up being very different from CDMA2000. As for numbers in China, there's no point discussing them until we see whether a network will be built and on what scale. If it doesn't come to pass, you'll have been proven correct... I should also point out that the fact that CDMA is building from a smaller subscriber base works in "our" favor for the purposes of this discussion. As of Dec98 there were only 23 mil CDMAone subs worldwide. If China were to add 40 mil over the next few years that would be a meaningful number for us even if we don't achieve 50% of the mkt. This, at its most basic level, is the case I've made for a long time for an investment in QCOM. There's also perhaps the possibility that by 2005 we'll see some 3G CDMA system in China, although that's not something I'd bet on. Were that to come to pass, would "we" have lost? Dave