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Non-Tech : Iomega Thread without Iomega -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Colvin who wrote (8791)	4/6/1999 2:56:00 PM
From: Frank Drumond	Respond to of 10072

Thanks for your model David. The model tells me that IOM is fairly priced and that by year end $10 would be a reasonable expectation.

To: David Colvin who wrote (8791)	4/6/1999 5:12:00 PM
From: Ken Pomaranski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10072

Good work! I have some comments, but I'll have to post the majority of them at another time. :( The good news is that no matter what you, Mike or I say, the data that comes from Iomega will be the ultimate yardstick... With that said, I think that both you and Mike are making the mistake of ignoring the overall trend of 1998: declining ZIP total revenues. To just dismiss an entire year as 'an aberration' will cost you in the end. There was important things to be learned: 1. ZIP retail market really looks to be 'sold out', at any price. Maybe $99 will be magic.. We'll see. 2. Margins are RAPIDLY decreasing as OEM increases. Too much, in fact. 3. Competitors can have a large effect on Iomega (Syquest probably killed Iomega in 1998. You laugh at Syquest's demise, but it had a rather large and material effect on both Iomega and it's stock) And, the biggest question of them all: If Iomega can't make it work with one of the biggest home runs in computer history (ZIP) how can they possibly make it work with a device with much more competition, smaller market, and a more complex value proposition? I just cannot get my ZIP and JAZ numbers to turn around in my model. I just cannot see the catalyst which will magically reverse the trend set through 1998. Again, we will see.. kp