<<I guess my question wasn't very clear. I was hoping you had a definition that would allow for some estimates of how many Chinese would fall into your definition.>>
Most of household in mid-, large-size cities, especially those who have school age children (from elementary to university age group). My sister's son is in third grade in elementary school. His class size is bet. 40-50, and every single of them has already had computers at home. So I would say in Beijing, Shanghai, or Guangzhou, the percentage of families which have had computers is significant, although I don't know the statistics. If you really want the number, I would put a conservative number somewhere around 10-20 million in big cities, but hold me responsible for it<g>. Chinese has over 2,000 years of civilization to emphasize on education. So as long as they save enough money, they will buy one, especially for their children. So the free fall of the pc price is really a blessing for Chinese.
<<Seems to me that the "ordinary Chinese is much more likely to own a cell phone than a computer, so perhaps the target is not your definition of "ordinary Chinese", but a more affluent cohort.>>
"Affluent"? No. In many parts of China, cell phone cost less than wired phone. In another word, you have to be affluent to own a wired phone, not the other way round.
<<I also don't discount the idea that Dell can become a popular brand name in China, particularly if they expand their relationship with IBM, which seems a real possibility.
As for sales to corporate and government agencies, this is an area where Dell has had excellent success in the past and it is reasonable to presume that they would bring this experience and expertise to bear on the Chinese market.>>
Time will tell us whether Dell can grab a significant share of the Chinese pc market. My answer is NO. The price is too high.
<<I personally don't know what Dell's plans are regarding sales in the Chinese consumer market, but if you have information that they have announced this as policy I would hope you would share your source with us.>>
I read a post from CPQ thread 2-3 weeks ago, a Dell company's speaker said that. Something like right now they are not targeting individual buyers in China. I even posted a link on MB thread. If, only if, I have time, I will try to find it for you. But don't hold your breath. I have a full-time job.
<<Your post seems to assume that things in China are as they are and will not change, which seems a somewhat narrow viewpoint. >>
No. The things in China will change, it will be getting worse before getting any better. Whoever counts on the rapid recovery in Asia is day dreaming. Westerners have a tendency to simplify things. They have no idea what the currency/economic crisis has done to those countries morale and economy. And China just starts melting. You haven't seen anything yet. Although I am fully confident that Chinese will get through this, just like they have gone through all kinds of hardship in their history, it will take a long time, and a lot of sacrifice.
<<Since Dell seems to be doubling sales every quarter, I presume they are are doing some things right.>>
Enough math knowledge will tell you that exponential growth works at the beginning starting a low base. It is easy for Dell to increase sales from 100 to 200 computers. When the number gets big, it won't happen.
<<I would be interested in you views also on economic prospects for China going forward 3-5 years and how you think Chinese technology development and/or application will impact that economy, especially as pertains technological innovations which allow developing nations to defer or bypass certain infrastructure costs. Thanks in advance.>>
3-5 years down the road, China will be facing a lot of hardship. First of all, it is a very difficult task just to put enough food on the table for all those 1.25+ billion people, no matter under what social system. One simple stats. I can throw out is that China has 22% the world population, but only 7 percent of the world arable land. The majority of the land in China is barren. The scenery is magnificant, but cannot provide anything to live on.
The second most difficult thing for the gov. is to create enough jobs for so many people. Although I am not sure what is the percentage of the service sector jobs in the US economy, I would estimate at somewhere around 50%. But Chinese have historical tradition of showing respect for the intellectuals, and looking upon the service job. In another word, unless they have a choice, some would rather do anything than serving others. I know this is sort of fedualism. It actually already improves a lot after 1949. Well, cultural stuff takes time to change. So unless significant number of Chinese are willing to work in service sector, the unemployment rate will be difficult to keep down. I think right now the figure in big cities is somewhere around 20%, if not higher. And social security system is not that sound yet. So it is tough.
As for technology innovation, I think China is very advanced in biotech research. INS has priority for two categories of foreign workers, one is the software engineers from India, another is Chinese Cancer researchers. In other theoretical hard science, China also is among the tops in the world. But in applied sciences, China still has a lot of catch up to do. As much as I hate to mention any thing political, I have to say it is ridiculous to say China steals nuclear technology form the US. Chinese themselves are smart enough to use nuclear technology without helping or "stealing" from others.
I guess I will have to stop here. Too long a post already. I don't think I answer your last part of questions well, those questions take some research to answer. |
