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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (41704)	4/6/1999 7:41:00 PM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

CuzBig, I don't see any "good news" on the horizon that could move the sector. We just might be in sleeply land for some time. big loosbrock.com

To: BigBull who wrote (41704)	4/7/1999 1:21:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

2 Schools of thought here .... buy& hold vs. ''range'' trading << Who cares what "the Street" thinks? .... Anybody selling this sector after reading your last post, needs THERAPY. But what the hell, I have an attention span of longer than 5 seconds, so I'll just keep buyin' what they be a sellin'. >> ...Bull - gotta love the optimism; nothing wrong at all with that. But, for most folks if they are buying and holding - how do they keep buying when others are selling ? They aren't generating any ''new cash'' if they never sold and just held ? They are still sitting and just watching from where ever they bought & held. Hopefully they were lucky to be in on a sub OSX 50ish equivalent in their individual stocks of choice. - Dollar cost averaging certainly allows one to keep buying - but that is not relevant to any comparison of a buy & hold approach vs. a ''range'' trading one - here of late. If they weren't lucky enough to ''nail'' a bottom call in their individual stocks - the buy & hold approach is unlikely to be up more than 5-10% since this entire new cycle began with the initial overall market blow off at the end of Aug/1st of Sept. In 7 months the OSX is now on its way to its 5th cycle of basically OSX 45-50 to OSX 60-72. Perhaps this time, we might not sink back to OSX 50ish ( I certainly do not think so) - but certain individual stocks are virtually right back to where they were if you had initially purchased them in the initial OSX & Total Market Selloff at the first of Sept. ie: RIG today $26 5/8ths vs. $26 1/16th. If one traded these 5 cycles that averaged 30%-40% moves upward and only ''caught'' 1/2 of the move for say an average of 20% each time - they would have 5 x 20% profits/returns for a potential 100% return vs. a buy & hold return from the initial Sept 1st selloff of about 26% if one happened to ''nail'' the exact bottom.... no comparison imho. Trading; with merely catching 1/2 of each cycles range; has returned 5 fold what buying and holding has done... this is not to mention all of the potential ''side'' trading/rotation gains etc. This has been an irregular trading pattern and it will not last forever - but why quit doing/using what is working ? When the moderately successfull utilization of one method returns 5 fold the results to the other; it's time to keep an open mind imho - the differential in returns is staggering. Nothing wrong with buying and holding - I don't think anyone doubts that with reasonable OPEC compliance we will be substantially higher by year end. OSX 85ish to even OSX 100 is within reason - especially with $15 + crude Oil; remember the last time we had $17 Oil - the OSX was at 104.... so if we hold at a $16-17 Crude range - the upside is substantial. ie: the selloff: << My guess is not more than a week, given the technical indicators I follow. >> No arguement there; but how the hell can anyone just sit and watch (read buy & hold) their profits in say FGI - fall from $18 back to $13ish, or if GIFI blows back from $12 to say $8 bucks again ? How does anyone not get physically sick when that happens once, let alone 5 times ? I don't know how anyone doesn't take profits here, after seeing this rerun for the now 5th time !?!? If nothing else; perhaps a conservative approach is taking profits by selling 1/2 of positions - going to 50% cash; off of the intial retracements off of these ''tops.'' I don't know about anyone else; but if I bought FGI at $12, let alone $10ish and watched it run to $15-18 5+ times and then only to fall back to $12 again - I'd be sick.... what's wrong with selling 1/2 of your FGI position at $15, another 1/4 of the position at $18 and rebuying on any retracement again to sub $15....with an inital 1/4 at $15 and then the 1/2 at $12-13 ? Never entirely closing out the position - thus avoiding getting caught ''FGI-less'' if we catch an surprise ramp up - but also, never letting a 50% return melt to a breakeven position.... I would agree on the sell off time period of a week here. The Street will want to see the initial earnings releases - a glimpse of dayrates, utilizations and backlogs will be a prerequisite to any further rally here - then expect another selloff prior to the initial OPEC compliance numbers . We could bounce off of OSX 58-60 here as a bottom and then hit resistance again at 66-72 going into the initial OPEC reporting period. What we need is for OPEC to be strongly (80%+) in compliance during the initial reporting period and for the Rig counts to reverse here off of a bottom - at least a bounce of 8-10 Rigs from the bottom and some comments on dayrates inching up - perhaps shallow water Jack Up / Nat Gas Drilling will lead the way. what we do ''not'' need is more headlines like this one tonight : << Canada rigs drilling fall 36 pct in week - CAODC >> I still say - ''trade 'em'' good luck