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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Brown who wrote (3795)	4/7/1999 12:45:00 PM
From: Jeff Vayda	Respond to of 29987

Joe Brown: No report available here, just will pass on my thoughts. Bernie commented in the last CC that G* needed 200K subscribers to cover costs and 1000K to pay for the next generation constellation. From the McKinsey Report mckinseyquarterly.com As we have argued, there are plausible circumstances in which some of these systems could succeed economically. Moreover, the breakeven level for both GMPCS and BSS systems represents only a few percent of projected terrestrial telecommunications demand (Exhibit 6). Eight million subscribers does not seem much when set against the 350 million or more cellular phones that will be operating in the early years of the next century. Even though the target market may appear to be set to shrink as terrestrial systems are built out, increased cellular coverage and usage will boost demand for mobile communications, which in turn will help boost demand for satellite services. There are also many lucrative specialist areas that satellites are uniquely positioned to serve, such as the maritime, aeronautical, transcontinental trucking, and rural communications markets. You can add numbers and define user groups all you want. I just go by the vast numbers involved and the fact that the service providers have already ponied up their own money to support the program. Marketing has been Iridium's failing to date. I think they will get that straightened out just in time to have their new advertising effort help Globalstar. I also will get on my soap box again and point out that G*'s fixed phone systems revenues are going to surprise everyone in 2001. Jeff Vayda

To: Joe Brown who wrote (3795)	4/7/1999 12:58:00 PM
From: Rocket Scientist	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29987

Joe Brown: I don't think G, much less Iridium, is targeting primarily the "3 Billion people without a phone." Such a statement should be taken just as a reminder that there are tremendous numbers of people and places on the planet grossly underserved by the existing telecomm infrastructure. Of course the vast majority of them cannot afford G or Iridium service. But 1% of 3 billion represents more than the combined capacity of Iridium and G. And I do believe that 30M people work in, live in or travel to places where the existing infrastructure, especially for mobile phones, is grossly deficient, and will find that G (and sometimes Iridium) is both affordable and worth the money. I don't have a demographic study to prove the above, just my personal experience and judgement based on it Regards, RS

To: Joe Brown who wrote (3795)	4/8/1999 5:20:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29987

* Market Research * I've ranted about this before. Most market research is a lot of rot. They ask stupid questions like, "Would you like to be able to talk to anyone anywhere?" Most people figure yes they would. "Would you pay $3 per minute for this service?" Since they don't have to pay just now they figure that it doesn't sound so much so say, yes. So it goes. The market researchers get a lot of group think if they use what are called focus groups. Or they get simple verbal behaviour information if they ask individuals questions. People claim all sorts of silly things when face to face with somebody asking them questions, then pick their noses in private, steal money if given to them by mistake by a shop assistant, find extra-marital affairs desirable and some people have even been known to fart in the bath. Then they get their noses in a knot when Clinton gets up to some tricks with Monica and tries to deny it. Which is exactly what they would all do too. There aren't a huge number of "I chopped down the cherry tree" types. Anyway, back to market research, it is usually no good. That's my experience anyway. Better market research can usually be done by thinking the answers. Sure, really good market research is vital. But care is needed to see whether it is Mona Lisa or a Campbells Soup Can. Globalstar's initial customers will be people who will spend $1 per minute on a call to anywhere, using a fairly chunky handset, phone box or marine terminal. They'll pay $1000 for the handset. They'll be in Swiss Cheese areas and needing to make calls. They'll like GPS for security or navigation. We know how many people used to pay that much for a similar-sized handset and similar priced minutes without GPS. We know how many people have terrestrial handsets but get annoyed at Swiss Cheese. We even have a pretty good idea of price elasticity for minutes. But that is all a bit academic now because the system is designed and built. Now we suck it and see if it's a lemon. Roll out the handsets, phone boxes and marine terminals and let's see what sells. Be ready to be flexible because minute prices might need to drop to get it humming. Demand for phone boxes in China might be a surprise. By the time Constellation2 is needed, a good knowledge of demand will be established. Maurice PS: [Better move this OT rant down here to be ignored...] Now the silly Republicans are trotting out the word 'apeasement' ad nauseum in relation to Clinton and China. Even Dan Quail who probably can't spell apeasement and certainly wouldn't have known squat about the internet in the early 1980s. How come Dan isn't safely caged somewhere? Apparently he seriously thought he was a good contender to have his finger on the nuclear trigger. But a bit of solidarity with Bernie Schwartz wouldn't go amiss. Good for him donating cash to the Democrats. I heard it was a free country. If shareholders don't like his political affiliations, they can always sell their stock. If they think Republicans are so dull-witted that they would do Globalstar and Loral in the eye to spite Bernie, then they certainly shouldn't be voting Republican. By the way, yes, I am hoping to interfere in the internal affairs of the USA. Some people apparently think that is not on - just returning the favour! Incidentally, one of the French frogmen who murdered somebody in Auckland in a state terrorist act has just published a book saying in part he was just following orders. I thought in Nuremberg that wasn't a good enough excuse. He said they were surprised that so many people in New Zealand seemed to notice things and report them to police. They called the operation Satanique [shows their mentality - they didn't call it 'Viveliberte']. I guess the USA and UK were complicit in the attack - they have good spy networks who would want to know such things and all were keen to do NZ in the eye over the anti-nuclear approach. They sure didn't offer any help!