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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bradley W. Price who wrote (1191)	4/8/1999 1:01:00 AM
From: Valueman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5853

2700 circuits per sat on G, which means the limit is in the gateways. They are max 1,000 circuits right now, with expansion of that number now under way. So, figure 50-60,000 circuits worldwide now, with expansion potential. By the way, it is NOT easier to fix gaps with terrestrial solutions vs. space. Just watch. G deployed=all gaps fixed. It is quite simple.

To: Bradley W. Price who wrote (1191)	4/8/1999 1:35:00 AM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5853

You might try reading the post before declaring its contents asinine. First, the numbers were not meant to be firm, but rather were provided as a means to discuss the issue, which I think was clear. Second, it did not say "Sats". It said satcos, as in satellite companies. Globalstar for instance will have 48 satellites operating at any given time. Third, 50 million paying customers doesn't mean anything close to 50 million--or even 500,000 concurrent users. What is the average usage per month of cellular customers? I bet it's not even 10 hours per month (round up to 2% of the time). The idea is that the cellular system would handle the bulk of these calls. Only when a cell is out of range would the phone go looking for a satellite. How often would that happen? Probably a very low percentage of the time (eg., 2%?) So, maybe the average customer is on the satellites for 10 minutes per month. Adjust for peak loading, and that implies that a given satellite must be able to handle a few hundred calls at any one time. Not 500,000. Fourth, the processing power issues of the satellites have been dealt with. That is not an issue. We are not talking about experimental technology, any longer. (I understand that a lot of the processing power remains on the ground on most of these systems, but somebody might confirm this). Fifth, The country will never have wall-to-wall cells. Have you been to upstate New York? To Montana? To the Rockies? There's a lot of land with no people and mountains in between. The point has been made to me, which I now accept, that the cellular network will always be a swiss chees coverage. Where did these numbers come from? I made them up! The intent was to try to formulate a framework for assessing the economics of the technology. If the framework is reasonable, then in DD we can investigate the numbers. But, you have to know what numbers to look for before you can find out what they are. (And, you will note, if you think about them, that there are internal inconsistencies in the numbers. I do not pretend to know what they are. Yet.) The point that has been brought home to me is that the customer will pay very high per minute charges if those charges are a part of the overall bill. Think about it: You're on a $25 per month plan. That plan gives you guaranteed nationwide/worldwide coverage. You can't tell when you're accessing the cells or the satellites. And, you don't really care. You just know that as you travel among the mountains of the Pennsylvania Turnpike, your call keeps working. And, you may not even be aware that $3 of your bill is going to a satellite company. (Any more than you care that your ISP is paying some fee to tie into the backbone of the internet). A driving force behind all this is the cellular companies' desire to be able to offer universal service. By the way, the Iridium commercials are probably among the dumbest on the air. They miss the point entirely. Remember the man in the snowstorm, presumably approaching the North Pole? My reaction was, "So what, I'm never going to be at the North Pole." A better approach?--Two women in a dead car along a barren stretch of road. One tries to use her phone. It doesn't work. The other pulls out her phone, "Here, I'll use mine, I've got Guaranteed Global Access(TM)." Available for just $5 per month from your local cellular dealer. Happy investing, JS PS--Note the (TM). I think I'll trademark that phrase. I like it! Globalstar, are you listening? I'll sell you the rights real cheap!