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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (20580)	4/9/1999 9:00:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Thanks, however I'm afraid I am light years behind in my reading. Even were I still a voracious reader I still have trouble reading for long periods due to the operation and I still have a second operation coming up. Anyway, one thing I'm driving at is the necessity for more than just a couple/three indicators. Of course, mine would be different than most because I operate on a very fast time frame. I had a trade on for 4 minutes yesterday. Even so, certainly the Position Trader would benefit from having several tested indicators. By a quick count, I enter/exit using a consensus snap analysis of over 9 Indicators. On any given trade I might discard one or add another. You mentioned RSI, I have it on two charts (with my own settings) but it only has validity for me at certain ranges. If the RSI on the SPxx is higher than 32 on a 5 minute chart for example it's a non-issue. Lower and it's a warning Flag. That's not going to help a Position Player. However I think any trader needs to base Entries and Exits on several pieces of Information. So I track the A/D as well. Whether the NYSE is right or wrong, whether the Number is Positive or Negative is irrelevant I think. I think what is relevant is Trend. Here's a thought, you have data going back a year. For laughs last Winter I aggregated all the data and created a Perpetual A/D ... obviously not Perpetual in the sense that the data starts last summer but I never drop anything off. The data goes on, adding each day to the total. Now chart that. I have it on Excel and linked it to a Chart. It's peak was early November and it's nadir was a week or so ago. If you looked at that for trend the first reaction you might have would be to wonder aloud how the market could possibly be advancing. On the other hand, your second thought might be that it cannot possibly get any worse. But as I say, if you just traded off that you would not have been Long in months. It's really quite interesting to compare it to the 25 day, as the 25 day has been inching up in steps for awhile. Meanwhile, the Perpetual (using my data, only since the summer) peaked at just over Positive 6000 in November and is now almost Negative 10,000. Well good luck, as it should be an interesting day.

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (20580)	4/9/1999 9:50:00 AM
From: Nemer	Respond to of 44573

Chip -- The ongoing discussion between you and the BlueCelt have reminded me of a thing that came about some years ago in the area of horse handicapping between me and a good friend. We had gone to the races together perhaps a dozen times during the preceeding year and were deep into recalling some of the details at a Christmas party when one of the avid listeners brought up a seemingly simple question concerning final times and beaten lengths. Don (my horse racing friend) immediately went into a good explanation about these two figures and how he used them in the handicapping process..... and I listened in rapt amazement, for he was very wrong and incorrect in his assumption of what these figures were...... This was in my drinking days, and it was getting along in the evening, and most all there were drinking, and ...errr, well... you get the picture ..... ggg As gently as I could, I told him that the figures he was using were indeed correct, but that one couldn't subtract the beaten lengths from final time and arrive at any "real" amount .... that it was a "made up and false" one. I also told him that I had great respect for his ability as a handicapper, and indeed I did, for I would look and relook at any horse he'd picked if I had not put that one my list of contenders for the race. Well, after many words, and many bodily gestures, and much finger shaking, and etc ..... about five or six of the party goers adjourned to my house down the street where I just happened to have a stack of Racing Forms large enough that a show pony couldn't jump over ....ggg The Past Performances, for those who don't know, give the past results for all horses entered into a race..... well, to make a long story short ... gggg .... it took no more than five minutes for my friend to be shown that he was incorrect. He admitted that the beaten lengths had to be added to the final time, not subtracted. NOW, what he'd been doing was, in essence, rewarding the losing horses and penalizing the winning horses which made up a "system" that was working for him......... not a "real" thing, but whattheheck, it worked for him and I told him I would give it a look and perhaps factor it into some of my analysis. However, he was so taken aback ..... he'd been using this for years .... and discovered that it was incorrect ... that he quit going to the races and hasn't been more than twice or three times a year since then. What I observed then, and I observe now, is ... if the figures anyone uses work for them use them matters not if they're "made up" as long as the figures give favorable results .... and now I must leave to go to the job site ...... ggggg not preaching, just observing, Nemer