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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Knighty Tin who wrote (55428)4/9/1999 3:16:00 PM
From: BSGrinder  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
Why the short duration on the April MER puts? Are you expecting some action next week?
Thanks,
/Kit



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (55428)4/9/1999 3:23:00 PM
From: BSGrinder  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
Michael,
Another question about rolling down:
When you roll down after a double (because expiration is too close), what percentage of the take-out do you use to buy farther out puts, and how does that compare to the amount you re-invest after rolling down after a quadruple?
Thanks,
/Kit



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (55428)4/9/1999 3:38:00 PM
From: gnuman  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 132070
 
MB, re: "Pigs are Flying"
Amazing how long it takes to get in tune sometimes.
Back in June 1997 I posted on the Intel thread that I saw Intel entering a new era. I predicted PC ASP's would start to come down, and in fact start crashing over the next few years. I believed this was an irreversible trend.
I saw PII, (PIII now), entering into a niche market. (High end PC's). It wasn't many months later that Intel announced Celeron.
In later posts I predicted that the price of mHz would begin to decline. That as Intel moved up the speed curve entry prices for new chips would come down. I speculated that CPU performance was outpacing the requirements of the applications. I also felt Intel should start spending some of their megabucks on developing new applications that required the increasing power of their products.
This, of course, was met by total derision on the thread.
Wonder what they think now?
exchange2000.com



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (55428)4/9/1999 4:39:00 PM
From: Stefan  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 132070
 
CPQ has warned lower commercial PC demand and we know what we have at retail.<G>



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (55428)4/9/1999 5:14:00 PM
From: Dale J.  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 132070
 
Mike, CPQ announced they will fall well short of expectations.
Shocking! Weren't you long CPQ? <G>

Seriously, I think CPQ knew from Day 1 they wouldn't meet expectations. Dale



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (55428)4/9/1999 5:32:00 PM
From: Dushyant Narayen  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 

Michael -
Congratulations on your (longstanding) Compaq call - enjoy
your weekend, you've finally been vindicated.
DN



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (55428)4/9/1999 7:44:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
Michael, many thanks for sharing your suspicions about Compaq on the open threads last February. Based largely on your reasoning , I purchased 30 contracts of cpq april puts (30s and 35s) and will have an extraordinary return on Monday. I'm glad I listened to your well constructed arguments, and grateful to have had access to your wisdom.

You da man!
Uncle Frank



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (55428)4/9/1999 7:52:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
mike, dell agrees with you...

For Dell, the "Pentium II is dead"
By Brooke Crothers and Michael Kanellos
Staff Writers, CNET News.com
April 9, 1999, 3:00 p.m. PT

Dell is proclaiming the death of Intel's Pentium II processor while it sings the praises of
the
low-cost Celeron chip as it heads into the sub-$l,000 market with its usual gusto.

Carl Everett, senior vice president in charge of personal systems at Dell says there is
such as small
delta between the two chips that its demise is a foregone conclusion. "You only have a
two to four
percent difference in performance between Pentium II and the Celeron. It's very
nominal," he said
today in an interview.

"The Pentium II is dead," he said. The Pentium II still appears in many models from all
major
computer vendors including desktops, notebooks, and some servers and workstations.
But
Everett's sentiment also reflects statements--though not quite as direct--from Intel
executives in the
past. Paul Otellini, general manager of the Intel Architecture Group, has said that
phasing out of
the Pentium II fits in with its overall plan for the Celeron chip.

Everett, who was once a senior executive at Intel, also believes the chip giant's new
strategy is
unprecedented. "Traditionally, a new Intel chip like the Pentium III would make its way
down to the
low end…but we don't believe this will happen," said Everett in an interview today.

The Celeron is "coming up" to penetrate markets that a high-end Intel chip would usually
percolate
down into overtime, he said. "We think the Pentium III will never make it into [the low
end] market,"
he said.

Dell is now gearing up to marshal all of its manufacturing and marketing strengths to
enter in the
sub-$1,000 market in force, he said. The Celeron technology, along with Intel's
upcoming Whitney
chipset, which integrates a graphics processor, will allow "desktops to get much smaller
and
eminently more serviceable," he said.

Everett said these future compact desktops from Dell would be small enough that
add-ons would
not be handled through the PC's space-hogging internal expansion slots, as it is done
traditionally,
but via Universal Serial Bus connections on the back of the PC.

Everett added that Dell's "segmentation strategy" calls for Pentium III processors to be
used in
higher-end markets such as "broadband Internet with 3D graphics" and the Pentium III
Xeon for
segments that need, for example, "multi-threaded apps," referring to the ability to run a
number of
software programs at once.

As Dell and Intel move quickly to establish Celeron and Pentium III as the mainstay
chips for the
foreseeable future, this may be setting up Pentium II-based systems for fire sales in the
coming
months as PC manufacturers try to sell off inventory.

"You might see a lot of Pentium II systems moving into the
sub-$1,000 market and be tempted to say, 'Hey, now Intel is
targeting Pentium II at the sub-$1,000 market.' But this isn't true.
These will really just be fire sales," said an industry source familiar
with Dell's strategy.

This Celeron-Pentium III strategy may also help Intel maintain
profit margins. In the past, price cuts on low-end chips lead to
price cuts on higher-end chips, which diluted profits overall. By
separating these products into two segments, low end price cuts
do not necessarily, or as directly, affect high end processor prices,
according to several analysts and Intel executives.

Nathan Brookwood, an analyst at Insight 64, said that the
introduction of the Pentium III will help Intel better define differences between its
low-end Celeron
line, the current Pentium II, and the premium-priced Pentium IIIs. "At least you can
show people
that there are things that you can do with a Pentium III that you can't do with a Pentium
II," he
said.

Of course, Dell will be challenged to make a profit in a market that has caused major
profit
headaches--and considerable losses in some cases--for PC makers.

Dell's move into consumer largely comes as a result of the Web, said Kurt King, PC
analyst at
NationsBanc Montgomery Securities. By selling more PCs on line, Dell is able to cut its
costs
dramatically and therefore make a profit on these machines. Before, a PC maker could
build market
share and revenue, but not turn a magnificent profit, he said.

"You build your top line, but you dilute profitability," he said. Dell actually has been
growing units
in the consumer market at 80 percent in year to year comparisons, faster than Gateway.
Nonetheless, Dell's consumer market share is half of what it is in business PCs.



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (55428)4/9/1999 9:35:00 PM
From: jim kelley  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
MB

Here is your fortune cookie:

You will be richly rewarded Monday for your CPQ puts.
It should break 20. However, DELL will hiccup and recover.
It will break 50 before May.

JK



To: Knighty Tin who wrote (55428)4/10/1999 7:25:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 132070
 
To All, Tech Review review. Larry mentions that this issue is early (where have I heard that name before? <g>). I guess the editors couldn't wait until the normal pub date so they could gloat about Compaq's preannouncement. <g> BTW, the term "myth" gets several mentions, as does the name of a brilliant guy I know well.

Great but different issue. The intl. scene, which has taken up about half of previous reviews, is absent this time around. And, IMHO, justifiably. The coming collapse in the US markets are the main topic right now.

1. They mention that in the last two decades, debt as a % of personal income has risen from 58% to 85%. It's called liquidity. <g> Not to be outdone, cash poor US corporations have borrowed to the tune of $400 billion a year in the past few years. It won't be long before we have more bankruptcy lawyers than soldiers.

2. Always using their cruel memory of past predictions, the Reviewers note that Wall Street analysts were predicting profit growth of 20% in 1998. It came in at -2.2%. Hell, close enough. <g>

3. A mention that capacity utilization in the US is the lowest since 1992. And inflation adjusted wages were 12% lower in 1998 than in 1973. Maybe that bear market didn't end after all in reality. Net worth of the American household has fallen 9% since 1989. Fortunately, none of this crap is happening at my house. <g> Of course, neither is work.

4. Oddly, they think that the T-Bond yield being 4.3 times the S&P 500 dividend yield isn't a good omen. Shoot, dividends are only for companies with free cash flow. We don't have any of those in the new pair of dimes.

5. I want to see their inflation adjusted stock charts.

6. They poke fun at Dataquest's predictions for DRAM growth. Really, didn't these guys realize that DQ had to be joking. Even they couldn't be dumb enough to publish what they published as anything other than a spoof. Alas, nobody at DQ has a sense of humor.

7. An exposition of the newfound muscularity of Korean DRAM cos.

8. They dare to mention Intel and "innovative accounting" in the same sentence. Will the units in Intel's inventory this quarter take up a space larger than Prince Edward's Island? That last was a doffing of the hat to the Canadian origins of the review's authors. I was going to say Rhode Island. From what I know of the newly fake-married Prince Edward, his Island must be something like the Sutro District of San Francisco. <g>

9. A nice slamming of internut stocks.

10. A catalogue of tech eps warnings that, now, a day later, are way behind the announcement curve.

11. A great stat. Microsoft was up $100 billion in the first quarter. US GDP was up $111 billion in the fourth quarter. When is Bill The Cat going to cough up a hairball and get rid of this slow moving country? <g>

12. I want to give away all the humor, but I don't think that would be fair to Larry and Danny. Besides, the disclaimer kind of scared me. <g>

Highly recommended.

MB