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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rhet0ric who wrote (23843)	4/9/1999 4:51:00 PM
From: Richard Habib	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213182

Generally, I'd say your right rhetOric but I think the safer assumption is that the stock won't test it's high on this earnings release. Three issues will lead analysts to exhibit their usual caution. First, top line earnings growth as we've discussed doesn't support a much higher stock price, 2nd, Apple is a turn around company that some will expect turn around growth to mask traditional seasonal revenue patterns. Some will say it's a negative if Apple is unable to show sequential growth in units, revenue and eps. Third, the fire hasn't had much impact but you can bet there will be analyst questions that Apple probably won't answer fully. I expect some analyst's to indicate an impact in this qtr and express caution. On a separate issue, did anyone notice that Appleinsider on their Sonata report indicated OS X would be released early next year? A mistake or use of fiscal calendar? Or is OS X delayed? Rich

To: rhet0ric who wrote (23843)	4/9/1999 4:51:00 PM
From: FruJu	Respond to of 213182

Any time I see the words "no-brainer", a big red flag appears in front of my eyes :) AAPL has exhibited a fairly repeatable pattern over the past 3-4 quarters of having a per-earnings runup. We've seen a mini-runup to 37 from 32-33 over the past 10 days, but with earnings only 3 days away, it seems to have stalled here (perhaps because of MaxPain). More troubling though, is Apple's tendency to have a selloff immediately after earnings announcements, so even if it does get to 40 by Wednesday afternoon, it may immediately pull back to say 35, with the usual suspects coming out with a "Apple can't sustain this - they're not growing revenues fast enough - iMac is a temporary phenomenon". Personally, I'm holding onto some May 37.5 calls since this spans both the earnings announcement and also the WWDC, which has also traditionally been a boost to Apple's stock... added in with rumours of QuickTime 4.0 announcement, iMac speed bump, Yosemite speed bump, Lombard announcement, and possibly even a P1 preview all before May expiration, I feel this is a pretty good risk to see a 5 or 10 pt boost in AAPL's stock. Some depends on how the other boxmakers do - and word is that this past quarter may not have been as bad as they had predicted. All that being given, if we get a rise to $40 by Wednesday afternoon on anticipation of earnings, I'll be selling half of my May calls to lock in a profit.