Interactive TV Future Forecasts:
Compiled by another investor.
Do you think IATV will be big?
It's a lot to swallow but worth the look if you want to invest in IATV.
INTERACTIVE TV
OVERVIEW TIMELINE
Interactive TV Statistical
The following list of statistical forecast information was compiled from public sources including news reports, published books, and other public sources. If you want more detailed research information other than this compiled overview list of publicly reported information, you would have to purchase the various full research reports which can all cost you a good amount of money. The numbers listed here are as publicly reported to be forecast by various companies, research firms, and others. So don't be surprised if some numbers seem to be inconsistent or contradictory with some other numbers. The future is uncertain, but these overall numbers and target dates help to provide some ideas as to where we are all heading with Interactive TV Please note that in the United States, the FCC mandates that cable TV set-top boxes be sold at retail beginning in July 2000 and that cable TV companies stop leasing or renting out cable TV set-top boxes by the year 2005. This regulatory mandate provides target dates that help to really push Interactive TV out into the big U.S. marketplace. As well as pushing cable TV boxes out into the marketplace, the additional effect of the mandate will be to provide collateral momentum for telephone-based and satellite-dish interactive set-top boxes. The forecast is that it should all gain a collective momentum over time throughout the world to help change television into a new interactive television media. Another major timeframe is the third quarter of 1999 (perhaps late August 1999 or September 1999) when there will be the first U.S. major test of the ATVEF standard. This could be seen as marking the first collective sounding of the gun when the public at large (the non-techie, non-early adopter folks) may begin to notice that there is something new called interactive television. From these numbers, you can conclude that the Interactive TV market will grow over time where there will be viable segments of the Interactive TV market using telephone connections, cable TV connections, and satellite connections. Cable will be a driving force behind the market, but cable may not totally dominate the market. You can also conclude that consumers will not want to deviate too much from their existing TV viewing habits.
Consumers may not want to use their TV sets as computers and
they may not necessarily want full PC-TV sets or computers that happen to have TVs as big monitors. In other words, consumers
may want to use uncomplicated basic web functions on their TVsets and they may just want to watch TV whether that "watching"
be of regular TV shows or of interactive information content
that they can easily surf or access without too much hassle. You
may also conclude that in the future you will be able to buy a lot
of products via TV interactivity that you would normally buy
nowadays at a store. You may also conclude that many homes
may have the TV as a nerve center of or have the TV as part of a
X10-like networked home controlling devices and appliances
throughout the home. And you can also see a possible demand for
TVs networked in the home like in a TV "LAN" package with TVs throughout the home linked to a central set-top or computer
in the home. Although Intel and PC-centric users may say otherwise, it looks like the future could be more of a
TV-oriented world than of a PC-centric world. However, there will always be PCs and many of them will be entertainment PCs or may even become servers on possible TV "LANs" in networked homes.
Caveat for China: Also be aware that China's TV convergence
activities add to the forecast equation. The numbers in the list
below do NOT necessarily include forecasts for China. You could probably adjust those numbers upwards at least a little bit to include China. News reports indicate that China currently has 200 million to 320 million TV sets, 40 million video compact disc (VCD) players, 11 million PCs, and only 2.1 million internet users (where fewer than 2% of those users regularly connect to the internet) with an additional 1.5 million internet users expected to come online 1999. Other news reports indicate the current combined total number of Internet users in China and Hong Kong is approximately 3 million and that China alone will reach 9.4 million by 2002. That's a huge market for growth. China's TV convergence activities could have a significant influence, particularly with Microsoft now being a major player in China's convergence activities with the "Venus" project, on what happens in the rest of the world for interactive television.
International Data Corp. has been cited as indicating "the
worldwide set-top box market is about to explode and Asia will
be at the forefront."
Note that the terms "Net TV" and "set-top boxes" are used interchangeably in the following information. Also note that when you look at the numbers, consider that it is not all "WebTV" but that there are other companies and other set-top boxes out there that help to add up to particular numbers. Also, depending on how you view the various forecast information, you could consider particular numbers to be conservative or optimistic.
YEAR 1997
3 million information appliances (IDC)
40% of Home PC households watch TV and use PC
simultaneously (MDX)
98% of U.S. households (99 million homes) have TVs while 40%
(40.4 million homes) have PCs (MCS)
YEAR 1998
95% of households with digital TV choose to receive digital TV via direct-to-home [DTH] satellite service (STA)
5% of households with digital TV choose to receive digital TV via their cable operator (STA)
5.9 million worldwide set-top boxes, internet game consoles,
handheld devices (IDC)
3 million set-top boxes & handheld devices (IDC)
1.4 million set-top boxes (IDC)
(Although set-top boxes totaled 1.4 million units, in comparison, PC shipments totaled 31.5 million units or 96% share of internet access market.)
848,000 internet game devices (IDC)
1% of households have activated net TVs (IDC)
54% of households have 3+ televisions (IDC)
48% of households have a PC (DQS)
12% of households have 2+ PCs (IDC)
12% of households access the internet on a daily basis (IDC)
21% of households have internet access (IDC)
43% of households use email regularly at home, work, or school (IDC)
30% of households with televisions (99.7 of households surveyed) do not subscribe to cable TV (IDC)
4% of households plan to purchase full PC-TV sets (IDC) (IDC VP of consumer devices research Sean Kaldor: "[Consumers] don't want a full PC and a full TV slammed together. I don't think convergence means putting one inside the other, I think it means one product taking the best of another. So maybe Web access is all you need on your TV and you don't need all the features a PC offers. A TV-centric device tends to be more favored than anything else. TV is more visually compelling, a more exciting set of deliverables.")
26% of households were familiar with net TV set-top boxes such as WebTV (IDC)
7% of households were planning to buy a net TV set-top box in 1999 (IDC)
39% of respondents willing to use a simple remote control when dealing with Interactive TV (JUP)
26% of respondents would do nothing to obtain new Interactive TV features (JUP) 10% of respondents would "browse the Web" or "click on TV-Web links" (JUP)
18% of Internet users surfed on a PC and watched a TV set simultaneously at least once a week; 27% of these "telewebbers"
were more likely to buy products online every three months
compared to 17% of all Internet surfers (ICO)
57% of surveyed WorldGate viewers prefer receiving services on their TV (WGT) (WorldGate VP of strategic programs Gerard Kunkel: "[TV] is a medium that everyone understands.")
$75 billion sales for overall consumer electronics (CEM)
YEAR 1999
110 million TV households in U.S. (nearly every home has a TV)(DQS)
79.4+ million adults (38% of U.S. population age 16 and older)are online (IQS)
18.8 million people plan to go online in the next year (IQS)
13.9 million worldwide net TV set-top boxes, game consoles,
handheld devices (IDC
8 million set-top boxes & handheld devices (IDC)
4.3 million set-top boxes (IDC)
37% of respondents prefer online supplemental content for news
stories instead of online supplemental content for entertainment (JUP)
10% of respondents prefer getting more information while watching a sitcom or drama (JUP) (Jupiter analyst Ross Rubin: "We believe most of the supplemental content that will develop around digital television will be informative in nature and utility driven." These findings run contrary to assumptions in the computer and TV industries that digital TV will represent a break-through in interactive entertainment.)
3Q 1999 first U.S. major test of ATVEF standard (ATV) [Perhaps late August '99 or Sept. '99 which are in 3Q '99.]
18 million households (one in five households) were simultaneously watching TV and working, shopping, or entertaining themselves online; 5 million households have a PC and a TV in the same room (the others, presumedly mostly PC users at this time, may be running back and forth between rooms) (SHO) Showtime's executive vice president of corporate strategy & communications Mark Greenberg: "The fact that one out of every five television households in America is watching
television and engaging in online activity at the same time indicates that there is great potential to attract audiences to programming that combines both mediums.") only 100,000 families will network their homes (network the home devices and appliances) by the end of 1999 (MOT) (Motorola's director of marketing & business development Sanjeev Verma said the market is still too immature for mass adoption. "We're taking the first meaningful steps this year. It will explode next year." Envisioneering director Richard Doherty: "This kind of home networking, where you've got control of anything around the house using a keyboard, is best suited to the
non-PC crowd.")
$80 billion sales for overall consumer electronics (CEM)
YEAR 2000
100 million adults (age 16 and older) online (IQS)
49% of households will be connected to the Net (WMS) (DQS)(INT)
42.7 households million own PCs (FSV)
40 million households own modems (FSV)
36.5 million households use the internet (FSV)
12.2 million households use internet appliances (FSV)
11.5 million set-top boxes (IDC) worldwide PC sales to overtake TV sales (INT) (Intel architecture business group predicts this....)
$1 billion home network market (WMS)
YEAR 2001
Optimistic JPA numbers if you don't include China?)
103.8 million cable and set-top boxes (JPA)
104.5 million game consoles (JPA)
149.9 entertainment PCs (JPA)
31.1 million DVD players (JPA)
1.37 million Internet TV sets (JPA)
0.94 million digital TV sets (JPA) growth of Internet usage will be strongest in emerging markets where annual growth rates of 38% are expected through 2001 and are fueled by heavy use of set-top boxes (IDC)
$5 billion market for low-cost network appliances and & cheap
PC products (DQS) (Arlen Communications president Gary Arlen 2-8-99 comment indicates significant impact of set-tops may not be until 2001: "Realistically it's a couple of years before we see a significant impact. And it's probably 2004 or 2005 before we see mass deployment." This comment is in line with the U.S. regulatory framework that is helping to influence the development of Interactive TV and set-tops.)
YEAR 2002
HDTV estimated to take off (IDC) (IDC VP of consumer devices research Sean Kaldor: "When you see them in a sports bar, you know it's close to taking off.")
61.3 million households are online (JUP)
55.7 million information appliances (IDC)
78% access the Internet through dial-up access providers (JUP)
60% of 12 million Internet TV viewers have telephone dial-up
connections (SRI) 12% access the Internet through cable modems (JUP) 6% access the Internet through digital subscriber lines (JUP)
3% access the Internet through wireless connections (JUP) 11 million set-top boxes worldwide (IDC)
5 million digital cable TV set-top boxes in U.S. homes (JUP)
15 million internet game consoles (IDC)
22% of households have activated net TVs (IDC)
42 million Internet Appliances shipped (almost 50% of the
internet access market) compared to 56 million PCs shipped(IDC)
15% of households (45-50 million U.S. households) have
high-speed internet access (IDC)
$4 billion home network market (WMS)
YEAR 2003
$90 billion home video-on-demand market providing movies, TV
shows, sports, and other forms of video-on-demand
entertainment (C&O)
YEAR 2004-2005
Internet appliance shipments to surpass PC shipments (IDC)
YEAR 2005
1 billion internet users (IDC)
(Explosive growth due to set-top boxes, web-enabled TVs, web-enabled screen phones, web-enabled game consoles, web-enabled personal digital assistants, and other information devices.)
145 million households to receive satellite TV service (STA)
53 million set-top boxes sold (STA)
6% of U.S. households will own IDTV (Integrated Digital TV)sets (STA) 42% of digital televisions are outside Europe and North America(STA)
63% of U.S. households will own digital set-top boxes (STA)
$111.4 billion market of products incorporating PC, television, telephone, and interactive video transmission functions (C&O)
YEAR 2006
fewer than 20% of households will be equipped with digital TV(not necessarily Interactive TV) (JUP) [Watch for digital TV converter boxes or converters built into interactive set-top boxes to be popular. -ruel]
$108.6 billion market of home entertainment center products
combining interactive television, telephone, and computing capability (C&O)
YEAR 2008
80% of people in developed nations access an "information superhighway" (C&O)
60% of Internet TV viewers have cable TV connections (SRI)
YEAR 2009
Broadband networks (ISDN, ATM, fiber optics, etc.) connect the
majority of homes and offices (C&O)
Electronic banking, including electronic cash, replaces paper,
checks, and cash as the principal means of commerce (C&O)
YEAR 2013
$65.8 billion market in books where the majority of books and
publications are published online (C&O)
YEAR 2018
$208.3 billion markertplace where half of all goods in the United
States are sold through information services (C&O)
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