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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RFH who wrote (7211)	4/10/1999 11:09:00 AM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18932

but I'm holding out for lower prices. Thought you guys weren't supposed to do that? <grin> What's the scoop? The budget impact from Y2K has been more significant than most investors anticipated, leading to a string of pre-announced earnings shortfalls within the technology consulting area and the ERP area. The momentum investing driving this market has largely bypassed this sector, with most stocks dropping 50-70% from last year's highs. The impact of Y2K, coupled with difficult prior year comparisons, has heightened the risk of earnings shortfalls in these groups. I would not expect a quick rebound in the group while the psychology remains poor, but many of these stocks are now trading near historical lows and patient investors should see a rebound once the survivors become apparent. Frankly, people are buying growth and the perception of growth and paying through the nose for it. Value of growth at a reasonable price has no appeal these days especially if there is a taint on the earnings front. AXNT, HYSL, DCTM have all been hit when they pre-announced shortfalls. In some cases the drops have been 50-70% after an already considerable decline YTD. AXNT went from $37 to $8 in two weeks or so. Specifically in the case of CHRZ, the 1999 estimates are dropping over the past 3 months. People are trying to avoid another CTAP debacle IMO. Good for you if it survives. ---- Dave

To: RFH who wrote (7211)	4/10/1999 5:24:00 PM
From: Dataminer1	Respond to of 18932

My accumulation of CHRZ looks very similar to yours. I made my 4th buy last week at 9 5/8. I am very comfortable with this. If this is your week to buy, and your AIM system confirms it, in my opinion I would stick to it. My feeling is that that it has probably bottomed, but who knows? In the long run, using AIM, it won't matter. I would be surprised to get another buy and feel fortunate to have had the accumulation I did. The other day I was discussing the idea that If one selected 5 AIM stocks after careful evaluation, put 10K into each one, and only one of them performed like Mr. Lichello's example, you would make a Million. The other 4 could go out of business and you wouldn't care. Interesting idea. Soon, perhaps we will be discussing how we are hesitant to sell as this stock rises. Regards, Bill