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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nolimitz who wrote (44981)	4/10/1999 1:14:00 PM
From: phbolton	Respond to of 53903

Micron Electronics 64MB PC100 $70 (8ns)CAS2 168pin 8chip Gold Leads -8E CHIP FULL 1year in house warranty / OEM 9.00 4/7/99 7:42:50 PM CDT N.C.S. 800-809-8169 512-441-2005 TX MT64PC100 Lets see (70-12)/8=7.50. So MU's ASP is now about $7.25, or maybe lower. The lowest retail on MU 128MB is $139 which also implies an ASP of about $7.25 or lower.

To: nolimitz who wrote (44981)	4/10/1999 2:42:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

nolimitz, get real. mu's biz has bee MUCH WORSE than even i thought. i have a history of overestimating earnings. $1.5+ billion in debt is good? $100 million+ in interest is good? retail pc unit growth of 1% is good? cpq warning that business sucks is good? dell missing rev targets for the first time in 5 years - TWICE! - is good? almost every pc wholesaler and reseller is disappointing? muei couldn't put together legos, let alone sell it for a profit and that is good? retail 64 mb pricing has collapsed from low $90s to high $50s and that is good? this is a disaster. btw, nolimitz to the nonsense, are you saying, in the mu doublespeak tradition, that things are an absolute disaster, just not the disaster some on this thread portray? ho ho ho ho ho! i understand you work for mu. do you think that leads to a conflict of interest? everyone knows where i come from... what about you...

To: nolimitz who wrote (44981)	4/10/1999 9:22:00 PM
From: Fabeyes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

I am getting the bleak news from far more than skeeter -- several from people there too. Besides when you have Appleton in the press ready to take swings at the CEO of Rambus I am sure things are rosey. You know the yeilds are down and the top people have solld a bunch of stock; if things were soo good why would Nicholson sell the first shares EVER. Read more than the posts here and the updates there -- the story will be there. Here is a little something to read I did meet with a Samsung market analyst on Friday, who volunteered some interesting perspectives. I don't feel that I'm at liberty to share all of the information (I probably should have pinned him down on each data point as to what was sharable). But here are some of the key points: 1) Samsung's market share is slightly over 20% for the first quarter (assuming that my 1Q DRAM market estimate of $5.1 billion is correct). He gave me monthly production by part type, and while Samsung's 16Mb and 64Mb combined revenue total is only slightly greater than MU's 2QF99 DRAM revenue, the fact that Samsung is selling significant amounts of 128Mb parts makes a difference. But the source of most of the increased revenues compared to MU is a large amount of SGRAM (VRAM). Put it all together, and Samsung is shipping over $1 billion of DRAM in the March quarter, which places it 50% above MU's DRAM revenue level. 2) Samsung is coining money in 64Mb DRAM right now. In the first quarter, the pricing and cost data he shared generated a higher operating margin per part than MU's 32% semiconductor gross margin (the difference in the two margins is that operating margin is after R&D and SG&A). While I doubt that the dollar amount of operating profit per part remains constant (given the current shape of DRAM pricing decline), the possibility of bit growth may protect total operating profit dollars. 3) It would therefore appear that even with the recently publicly announced increase in Samsung's capital spending plan (from $1 billion to $1.2 billion), CapEx will be more than covered by cash flow (income plus depreciation). This company doesn't appear to be financially hindered in the slightest at current business levels. 4) Let me stress that this was my first face-to-face with the gentleman in question, so I have no track record with his data. But what data he showed me was detailed, elegant and impressive. Therefore, I'm inclined to give him a high level of credibility until proven otherwise.