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Pastimes : Kosovo -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nihil who wrote (3329)	4/11/1999 9:18:00 AM
From: D. Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17770

This is from Stratfor on Kosovo resources: Economics and the control of natural resources figure into any conflict to a certain extent. The situation in the Former Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) has been no different. NATO has certainly been targeting the Serb energy infrastructure, hoping to cripple the military and reduce the will of the people to fight. In terms of natural resources, Serbia imports the majority of its crude oil and natural gas. The two Serb refineries are located at Novi Sad and Pancevo. Crude oil imports were coming primarily through the Adria pipeline, which runs through Omisalj, Croatia west to Slovenia, Hungary and Slovakia, and then east to Novi Sad, Pancevo and Kukinda. At the start of the NATO air campaign, Croatia halted shipments via the Adria pipeline. Russian natural gas is imported through the Bratsvo pipeline, which runs through the Ukraine and Hungary. However, the main source of power for Yugoslavia is coal-generated electricity. Estimates indicate that as much as a third of the coal resources in the country are found in Kosovo. As a whole, Serbia has proven coal reserves of 18.2 billion short tons, making it the only country in the Balkans with large coal deposits. Some have even argued that the current Serb offensive and ethnic cleansing of Albanians in Kosovo is an attempt by the Yugoslav government to keep a firm hold on two highly productive coal mines in Kosovo, which have accounted for over a quarter of the country's total coal output. However, after a closer look at the ethnic balance within the Kosovo province and then comparing this to the location of the mines, we notice that while keeping control of the mines may come into play in the Yugoslav grand strategy for Kosovo, it is not the primary objective. Both mines are located in Serb dominated areas of Kosovo province. One mine is in the extreme south of the province and the other is in the extreme north. Neither of these mining towns are primarily populated by ethnic Albanians. The ethnic Albanian population that is settled in the relatively flat valleys in the southern portion of the province is devoid of these resources. Indeed, the KLA has in the past made these two mines prime targets to draw attention to their cause and to draw the Yugoslav Army into protective revetments around them. Hypothetically, should there ever be a segmentation of the Kosovo province based on population density or some similar calculation, Serbia would want to keep control of the economically valuable regions. They may offer the sheep pastures up to the ethnic Albanians as part of the settlement plan. Would NATO let this pass?