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Non-Tech : NetBank(NTBK)-formerly Atlanta Internet Bank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Milde who wrote (1360)	4/11/1999 11:14:00 AM
From: Goolie2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2414

<<Can someone who knows more than I give us a rundown on the competition? There's obviously TBFC. That ATLB announced intentions to get into Internet banking, but I won't put much weight into it until I see what they are offering. Everyone on the planet is annoucning intentions to Internet-something.>> TBFC and NTBK clearly have first mover status, and will be treated like EGRP and AMTD in the market place. (If TBFC and NTBK double from here, they will still have a smaller market cap than EGRP!) It doesn't matter who is next because they will be a new brand. And traditional banks won't matter. They will refuse to compete on price, so they just don't offer potential depositors the same value proposition. On Friday, Mitch Caplan welcomed a major online push from the major banks, he says it will just make their job that much easier. When the majors convince the public that onine (self service) banking is safe, convenient and cool, consumers will seek out the best deal. I don't pay full price when I pump my own gas! I agree that we may have seen a short term top in the group (of 2) especially since TBFC prices it's secondary after Monday's close. (BTW, I have NTBK and TBFC bookmarked, NTBK had about 30 new posts, TBFC none.) But the long term outlook is incredible. As long as you can't see a limit to their growth, you will not see a limit to the stock price appreciation. Yes there will be violent pullbacks. Yes there will be parabloic upswings that will entice you to sell some shares. But dips should be used to add and breakouts should be used to double up for trading. Shorts will be swarming and make the move that much more sustainable. I've been building my TBFC position since December. And yes, I sold some of my position off, and each time I have let some stock out, I have watched the stock instantaneously add another 10%. My core position is now 20% less shares than I promised myself, yet it makes up better than 2/3 of my investible net worth as of the close Friday. Depending on where TBFC gets priced, the book value will be between $25 and $31. (Assuming it gets priced no higher than $100!) So I see a bank that is profitable that is growing its assets at a current run rate of 100%. It will be selling for about 5X book value. Not that ridiculous. According to comments made yesterday at the Goldman Sachs NYC roadshow, as of 12/31/98, they were 5X the size of the rest of the industry. And they should double assets this year and next and end 2000 with $9Billion in assets. Today their market cap is a little better than 1/2 assets, or 1X deposits. NTBK sells at better than 1X assets (closing in on 2X assets?). If continues to sell at 1/2 assets it's still a quadruple by the end of next year. But if these banks continue to grow assets at CAGR of 100% their multiples will EXPAND. Think about it. Goolie2