Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clarksterh who wrote (29496)	4/11/1999 5:57:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Clark, >>I'd love to see a histogram of units sold vs price.<< >Forty-two percent of all PCs now sell for about $1,000, according to market research firm PC Data Inc. Almost 20 percent of PCs cost less than $600. < washingtonpost.com Not a histogram, but a start. G.

To: Clarksterh who wrote (29496)	4/11/1999 9:51:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

>>My point was that as DRAM's enter the mainstream they drop more than usually fast. 64Mb are just now entering mainstream so such a drop is 'normal' even if not desirable. For instance, right now 1Gb DRAMs probably cost two or three times as much per Mb as does 64Mb DRAM, but by the time 1Gb takes over for 64Mb they will probably cost the same per Mb. Thus they dropped faster, but it is expected, and isn't a huge deal. As long as it doesn't continue to drop once it becomes the largest source of revenues for DRAM makers.<< clark, agreed on the faster decline for newer technology. since it is newer, the companies can reduce costs more quickly and usually absorb the decline w/o any pain. well, when the decline starts from a point of pain... ;-) >>"Executives at Dell, the leading direct distributor of PCs, said the computer industry should continue to grow at historic levels of around 14 to 15 percent this year while Dell will grow at a multiple of the market."<< that doesn't cantradict anything i've said. notice they didn't specify units or revenue. they are talking about units - but they don't want you to know that - or figure it out. revs in 1998 were DOWN while units were up in the low double digits (12-14%). a multiple, you say? goodness gracious, at 80 times earnings, i hope they do better than average. low single digit rev growth corresponds to about 40% annual rev growth. remember, they said they would sacrifice margins to do it... let's see, lower rev growth plus lower margins means... everything is just dandy! ;-) e-machines (have you heard of them?) have a higher market share than dell and they didn't exist 2 years ago. they only sell low end boxes ($400-$700). this market is growing like a weed. no doubt communications has done a lot to save intel from losing margins. we'll have to see what handset margins do going forward. i would be surprised to see them grow from here. but, we'll see. if they do then there are some legs to the communication arena. semis aren't dead. just no growth for a while. anytime. it is fun and always eye opening. good luck.