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To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (18535)	4/12/1999 2:04:00 PM
From: Dave B	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

OTOTOTOTOTOTOT bp, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your statement about a tough year. Dell said that they didn't lower prices fast enough at the end of their quarter (which ended Jan 31) and they lost some deals. They said that wouldn't happen again. At the analyst conference last week, Dell said that they still expect year-over-year growth in the 40% range (roughly the midpoint of the range they gave). Slower than their 50% growth in the past, but much better than the <10% growth that Compaq just warned (if you add Compaq and DEC together for the quarter last year). Having said that, I also don't believe demand is slowing. Maybe the rate of growth is slowing, but I think IDC is projecting growth around 12%. Dell said that they see market growth of 14% to 15% this year (and see the p.s. below). I believe those two more than I believe Pfeiffer at Compaq. I believe that Dell is eating Compaq's lunch. Keep in mind also that all of these guys make more than PCs, and Dell has just started expanding into other high-margin markets and should steal share in these areas as well. Compaq was in a tough position this quarter. While January is usually a great month for the computer business, it's a slow month for the box makers themselves (PCs are bought before Christmas; printers, memory, cables, floppy disks, and all other incidentals are bought in January after the recipient starts using the new computer). This year, the PIII came out at the end of February and delayed some box purchases another month. Compaq took a hit in both months and only had March to recover (or not recover, in this case). Dell took a hit of one month last quarter and a hit of one month in the current quarter. I think they'll hit their numbers. I may be old-fashioned, but I still believe in investing in a company with real products and real profits. The internet frenzy looks like the biotech frenzy of the 80's to me. And only about 5 of those companies are still around (at greatly reduced prices, I think). What gives Amazon.com an advantage over Wal-Mart if they decided to start an internet site? Nothing. I don't shop Amazon.com anymore. I use www.mysimon.com which searchs a variety of on-line shopping sites and lets you compare prices. Buy.com is the consistent winner (about 20%-25% cheaper), so that's where I buy all my DVDs now. And I understand they're selling below cost and making the difference up on ad revenue (so I'm building my library quickly before they go out of business <g>, but if they do, someone else will take their place). Am I preaching? I feel like I'm preaching. Oh, well. Sorry if it comes across that way. Dave p.s. Stephen Burke of Computer Reseller News is on CNBC is saying that PC market is still very strong right now.