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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc chatman who wrote (42209)	4/14/1999 3:55:00 PM
From: JGreg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Would this suggest buying companies in rig repair, maintenance, and transportation, but not the drillers themselves? I don't have an answer, I'm just asking.

To: marc chatman who wrote (42209)	4/14/1999 4:16:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

ie: Palmer; utilization up - but dayrates ''avg'' ???? I would think that rising utilization would be linked closely to rising dayrates - his magic GOM # is 150+ rigs at work before rates increase - so watch that number His remarks are about Q2 - I'm not worried about Q2 and do not think the Street is either, but watch the spin on this to the negative ! Q3 & Q4 expectations/forecasts are the real story. If we get stories about Q3 & 4 being weak - it's E&P time for me - 100% except some trading and minor positions - blow offs like CLB etc... I'm not waffling here - so save the barbs (VBG) - I am trading period; and what I believe and what I think, does not matter - I (we) do not control the market - the Street and ''their'' sentiment does - I will trade in anticipation of and in reaction to what the Street does & thinks - period. My thoughts are only to position myself in relationship to their actions. I will buy deep into their selloff if we see the mid 50's again; as I think that Q3-4 will bring OSX 85 to even 100 and I positioned myself prior to this earnings period to be able to buy the dips. The Intnl Oils will be pressured to pursue growth by Q3-4 in an enviroment of $16+ Crude Oil and the Asian demand recovery story will have time to unfold... if OPEC does their job - we are in business. Fundamentally - the future is bright; I even think the case is better than probable for a supply problem and an upside surprise in both Crude & Gas prices in 9-12 months. Love the mid cap E&P's and Nat Gas plays here...UPR getting noticed, XTO moving nicely, OEI strong ... We had a little buying pop off of the last drop here and I feel that most of the Energy Funds have done their buying - they will wait untill they see how the earnings reports & comments play out - ''AND" untill OPEC reports its initial compliance numbers off of the new cuts. With the major market rocking - no sector rotation in sight near-term; so that catalyst is gone. Tax time money & IRA contributions are over - so I see the shorts laying on heavy here - and not enough buying support as the Energy funds have had 3 shots to buy here at these - or lower prices of late.... down we go imho.... untill we see OPEC's hand -- and that is the entire short term story. ...time to sit & wait, or to do a little trading... C'Mon HMAR announce that financing....

To: marc chatman who wrote (42209)	4/14/1999 6:00:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

In gauging the near-term outlook for the OSX, important to remember that this index has already fallen nearly 15% form its recent high and is less than half its all time high. A lot of the bad first quarter numbers already are in the OSX. The Dow and S&P, by contrast, stand just below record highs and many consider both of them exteremely overvalued to put it mildly.

To: marc chatman who wrote (42209)	4/14/1999 7:01:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

So how many of these OS CEO types predicted oil at $16.50 this month? As far as I know there was only one person on this thread who actually got the number and timing right and without a lot of equivocating bullsh*t. Ahmed. Maybe Ahmed should be running BHI instead of this dude. One thing we KNOW Mr. Palmer knows how to do right. Make lots and lots of money while he fires his employees by the bushel. No, my friend, these guys HAVE to be negative IN PUBLIC after what they've done. Pardon me, while I take ALL predictions from these jokers with a HUGE grain of salt. Listen to the Spears interview that Doug Fant posted. These guys are all Dr. Doom at the bottom and Pollyana at the top. If these guys were that smart about predicting day rates and rig utilization then how come they weren't slashing jobs at the peak in ANTICIPATION of the coming downturn? HMMMMM? My, my, how thing things change. Wasn't I reading just two days ago GLUT GONE?! One bad API number after 5 good ones and it's the end of the world!!!!!! Wow! I am completely fading what oil traders / oil executives say in public. In this sector its Buy cheap - sell dear! End of story.